• Ian Watson

26 March 2008

In a report for Australian Policy Online in May last year, IAN WATSON used Newspoll voting intention data for 1987-2004 to show how the voting patterns of older Australians appeared to be moving against the Liberal-National Coalition. Updating the analysis in this article, he finds that the 2007 pre-election survey data confirms a trend way from the Coalition among older voters...

WHEN it was in government under John Howard, the Coalition appeared to have struck a chord with older Australians. Large proportions of older voters (those aged 60 and over) consistently favoured the Liberal-National Parties from the mid 1990s onward, with the first preference vote for the Coalition in this age group averaging well over 50 per cent.

As the population ages, can we expect this voting pattern to continue, leading to a consolidation of support for the conservative parties? Or, on the other hand, will the movement of “baby boomers” into the ranks of older Australians moderate this conservatism, and perhaps even reverse it? Examining 20 years of Newspoll public opinion polling data about people’s voting intentions in the lead up to the federal elections is very revealing. Looking at the gap between the support for the Coalition by a particular age group, and the overall average for all age groups, provides a useful way of tracking a cohort of voters over time.

The data reveals that after a fall in support between 1987 and 1990, the Coalition’s fortunes improved in the 1990s, increasing steadily through to the Howard victory in 1996. 1998 saw a sharp drop in support for the Coalition, followed by a revival in 2001 (the Tampa election). From then on it was a steady downhill slide until the 2007 election, Howard’s end.

How does the support of older Australians compare? Voters aged 60 and over largely followed the all-age average trend, but supported the Coalition to a much greater extent. Over this period, the age gap favouring the Coalition ranges from 5 to 10 percentage points.

If we look at the age group which is younger by five years (55 to 59) we also notice a similar pattern in the years leading up to 1998. The gap between the overall average and this specific age-group was quite wide until 1998. However, for the years 1998 to 2004, the gap either disappeared or narrowed considerably. By 2007 the age-group vote virtually corresponded with the overall average, indicating that this age group was no longer any more conservative than the average. Now what is interesting about this age group - the 55 to 59 year olds - is that by around 2000 the first wave of “baby boomers” had entered their ranks. Those born in 1945 or 1946 were turning 55 in 2000 and 2001. It is possible, therefore, that some of the downturn in Coalition support by this age group in the lead up to the elections of 2001 and 2004 reflects the arrival on the scene of some of these early baby boomers.

This notion finds more support in the data for the next younger age group - those aged 50 to 54. Their voting intention pattern up to, and including 1998, showed strong support for the Coalition. This age group consistently supported the Liberal/National Parties through all these years, though the gap began to close slightly in 1998. However, by 2001 this gap had evaporated entirely, and by 2007 the direction in support has reversed. This age group was now more likely to vote against the Coalition than the overall average. In 2001, this age cohort was made up entirely of early baby boomers: those born between 1947 and 1951 and by 2007 it included those born between 1953 and 1957.

It appears that voters aged in their 50s are changing their electoral behaviour, but this has only happened for the last three elections. They have turned away from the Coalition and this coincides with a change in the composition of this age group: they are now made up of people born in the late 1940s and 1950s. In other words, the shift away from the Coalition among this particular group of older voters coincides with the arrival of the political generation based on the early baby boomers.

If the sentiments of these baby boomers are still Whitlamesque, if they can remember an era when social reform flourished, and if their aversion to economic rationalism and hyper-individualism remains intact, then one can easily imagine that many of these voters will be hostile to the Coalition. The data seems to fit this interpretation.

In summary, while in general older voters favour the Liberal-National Parties, the greying of the baby boomers appears to be overturning this truism. This may well signal a demographic shift working against the Coalition in coming years. •

Read the full research report (PDF) >

Ian Watson is a freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University

Thanks go to Sol Lebovic, then of Newspoll, to Martin O'Shannessy and Cassandra Marks of Newspoll, and to Donna Ralfe, for assistance in providing data. Thanks to Sol also for discussing preliminary findings with Australian Policy Online. I am grateful to Murray Goot, Anthony Green and Humphrey McQueen for feedback and useful advice, and to Peter Browne for commissioning this research.

Photo: Andrew Jeffrey