• Daniel Tynan

30 October 2009Australia has a unique part to play in the international campaign, writes Daniel Tynan

THERE is a widely held view, particularly among security analysts in the United States, that the world is on the cusp of an unprecedented wave of nuclear weapons proliferation. Former US Secretary of Defence, William Perry, earlier this year remarked, “I believe we are at a tipping point of proliferation. And if the world does tip, it will be irreversible and dangerous beyond most people’s imagination.”

There are many reasons why we find ourselves in this position. There are over 25,000 nuclear weapons deployed around the world, 4000 of which on high-alert and can be launched within minutes. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which was negotiated in 1996, is yet to enter force and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty has been abandoned. Belligerent states, including North Korea and Iran, are actively pursuing nuclear weapons programs and recent reports suggest that they may each now be sharing their technology with other states. Just this week American intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran has enough nuclear fuel to make a rapid, if risky, sprint to produce the enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear weapon.

Sceptics of the project of abolishing nuclear weapons believe that it is naive to think that determined proliferators can be restrained or that the global nuclear arsenal can be eliminated. Fortunately, since the election of Barack Obama, renewed interest in eliminating nuclear weapons is emerging. Earlier this year, President Obama spoke of “America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” This sentiment was echoed by Kevin Rudd, who has said that Australia must also “be committed to the ultimate objective of a nuclear weapons free world.” Positive results are also beginning to be achieved in relation to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The challenge of achieving total nuclear disarmament certainly cannot be understated, but the emerging groundswell of support should encourage the international community to expand efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons. The mere existence of nuclear weapons means that the international community faces an irreducible risk that armed conflict between states or from terrorist organisations might at some point escalate into nuclear warfare.

It is essential that countries like Australia, with the resources, capacity and international standing to act, take the lead in developing practical policy solutions to champion the elimination of nuclear weapons.

The starting point should be a reconsideration of Australia’s own nuclear policy. At present, Australia’s security framework supports the elimination of nuclear weapons in principle, but relies on the policy of extended deterrence provided by the United States’ allied nuclear umbrella. Successive Australian governments, including the Rudd government, have acknowledged that so long as nuclear weapons exist there is value in the “protection afforded by extended nuclear deterrence under the US Alliance.” Australia cannot credibly assert its commitment to eliminating nuclear weapons while remaining entirely dependent on US nuclear power as the bedrock of our regional defence strategy.

Australia is strongly placed to influence multilateral nuclear disarmament initiatives. We have a proud tradition of supporting non-proliferation measures on the international stage. As a close ally, Australia could lobby and encourage the United States to ratify the CTBT and support multilateral engagement to re-commence negotiations for a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. The latter would cap the amount of enriched uranium and plutonium available for nuclear weapons. Leadership from the United States might encourage other nations to act responsibly. Earlier this year, Indonesia – one of nine countries yet to ratify the CTBT – announced that it would immediately sign on if the United States did so first.

Another priority is the negotiation of a binding Nuclear Weapons Convention. There are encouraging signs that this is achievable. Multilateral diplomacy has lead to the banning of chemical and biological weapons, land mines and cluster munitions. Some countries, including Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, have divested themselves of nuclear weapons; some other countries, including Brazil, Japan and South Africa, have abandoned nuclear weapons programs altogether. With the support of like-minded nations and the backing of the United States, Australia could take the lead in examining this proposal and developing a comprehensive framework that would prohibit the development, testing, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons.

As the source of the world’s largest reserves of uranium ore and the second largest exporter of uranium, Australia is uniquely placed to develop and enforce best practice for the safe management of civilian nuclear technologies. While civil nuclear power does not, of itself, present a proliferation problem, there are proliferation risks inherent in the spread of uranium enrichment and reprocessing technologies. There is also a need to make sure that there is transparency in the uses and export of civil nuclear resources. Australia could be a global leader in ensuring that civil nuclear cooperation serves exclusively peaceful purposes and does not contribute to global nuclear weapons programs.

Australia should also seek to establish itself as a global authority on non-proliferation and disarmament strategy. Drawing on the initial work of the joint Australian–Japanese International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this could be achieved by establishing a permanent, government funded research institute focussed on the development of public policy in this field. A concentration of intellectual capital in such an organisation, could also be utilised to expand the number of security analysts trained in Australia and to promote collaboration with US organisations such as the Brookings Institution and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

No one would doubt that the task of abolishing nuclear weapons is a daunting one. Australia has the resources and capacity to play a leading role in this effort by identifying and implementing some priority steps that are politically imaginable and feasible. •

Daniel Tynan is a barrister. He completed his Master of International Law at Cambridge University.