Policy report

Perspectives on the US economy after 8 months of Trump

11 Sep 2017
Description

This research note recommends a return to New Zealand’s long-cherished bipartisan trade policy that has been damaged in recent years’ debates over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Key points

  • The US economy is growing steadily at 2%, and unemployment is low at 4.3%. The outlook for New Zealand exporters to the US remains solid, albeit not spectacular.
  • The anticipated stimulus from a tax reform and infrastructure package is unlikely to occur, as the new administration struggles to keep Congress happy.
  • US trade policy is focussing on penalising China for dumping steel and intellectual property theft, updating the North American Free Trade Agreement and potentially withdrawing from the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement.
  • None of these processes will run smoothly, and the outcomes could contribute to a challenging global trade environment for Kiwi firms.
  • Pro-trade US businesses are keeping their heads down to avoid the wrath of Trump instead of pushing for greater economic integration.
  • New Zealand should take the next few years to reaffirm its bipartisan approach to trade policy and economic integration – starting with TPP – so that it is ready to move swiftly when political conditions improve.
Publication Details
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All Rights Reserved
Published year only: 
2017
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