This paper provides guidance for users of economic modelling. It is written for the non-modeller, particularly those seeking to better understand the results and validity of modelling reports. For those seeking to commission economic modelling, it contains useful guidance material for conducting economic modelling.
The paper aims to improve the contribution of modelling to public policy debates.
Economic modelling can be a powerful tool to build consensus for change. Done well, it can better inform policymakers on the costs and benefits of implementing new policies, events or projects. However, concern is growing that poorly conceived economic modelling is increasingly making its way into the public policy debate.
Poor modelling has the potential to mislead decision-making (and impose costs on society). It also undermines the credibility of economic modelling, and threatens to turn decision-makers away from a valuable tool for policy analysis.