Does the Coalition have a problem with female voters?
Newspoll’s detailed quarterly figures since the last election suggest a small one. From Pollbludger’s aggregated data (and ignoring Ipsos because of its small sample sizes) we get this graph covering the period from late 2016 to Decamber 2018. It shows more men than women saying the Coalition will get their primary vote, though the gap — usually rounding to 1 per cent — isn’t huge.
But opinion polls months or years before an election are one thing, and election results are another. The question “If an election were held today…?” is hypothetical in the extreme; unfocused minds are expected to snap to attention and pretend they’ve just endured a whole election campaign and are about to cast their vote.