This report presents data on crime reported to, or detected by, the NSW Police Force from January 1995 to December 2011, with a focus on the statistical trends for the 24 months ending December 2011.
During November and for part of December 2011 NSW Police Force industrial action meant that fewer incidents than expected were recorded for some offences. We estimate that due to this industrial action overall recorded assault counts could be up to 1.5 percent below expected levels for 2011. This effect can clearly be seen for the last two months in Figure 1.1 on page 7 which is strongly influenced by aggregate assault levels. We estimate that the effect of this industrial action on other major offences is well below one percent for 2011. However, offences such as offensive conduct, offensive language, drug offences and others involving police enforcement and issuing of infringements have counts below expected levels for November and December 2011.
The report includes an overview of trends in the most recent two-year period for major offence categories, firstly for NSW and then across NSW regions broken down to the Local Government Area (LGA) level. At the State level, for the 24-month period to the end of December 2011 one major offence category has been trending upwards: steal from motor vehicle (up 7.5%). Three of the 17 major offence categories were trending downwards: assault - non domestic violence related , robbery without a weapon and break and enter dwelling. As we have concerns that the industrial action in late 2011 may have lowered the counts for assault - non domestic violence related , an offence which peaks in the warmer months, we conducted additional analyses, controlling for trends and seasonality. These analyses indicated that the reported 7.0 percent significant downtrend reduced to 5.4 percent when predicted counts were used for the last two months of the test period.