Research report

Spatial and temporal responses to an emissions trading system covering agriculture and forestry: simulation results from New Zealand

28 Sep 2012
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This paper presents the results of simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner.

It compares the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluates the importance of the forestry component of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) relative to the agricultural component. It also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, it presents projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.

Authored by Suzi Kerr, Simon Anastasiadis, Alex Olssen, William Power, Levente Tímár and Wei Zhang.

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