The estimates and projections of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians presented in this release are subject to volatility. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts and the quality of data on births, deaths and migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people do not support the use of the standard approach to population estimation.
Estimates for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population of Australia and the states and territories have been produced for the period 2001 to 2011. Estimates for 30 June 1996 to 30 June 2000 are also included in Appendix 1, however these estimates should be used with caution and have not been included in any analysis for this release.
Using assumptions about future fertility, paternity, life expectancy at birth and migration, 10 series of projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have been generated for 2012 to 2026 (see Chapter 2 for more information). Three series, Series A, B and C, have been chosen for analysis in this release. Detailed information for these and the remaining series are available in data cubes attached to this release on the ABS web site.
It is important to recognise that the projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are illustrations of the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, paternity, mortality and migration were to prevail over the projection period. There can be no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within the projected ranges.