Introduction: Economic growth will accelerate in the coming year, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts. The outlook has brightened from the survey three months earlier.
Economic growth is tipped to accelerate from an estimated 3.1% in the March 2014 year to 3.8% in the coming year. Growth will moderate in future years, but remain positive.
The recovery is broad: across household spending, investment and exports. There is more to the growth story than the Canterbury rebuild, although it remains a large component of the longest sustained surge in residential construction since 1981-1986. The recovery will translate in to more jobs and a pickup in wages growth. Living costs will also rise, as will interest rates.
Rising interest rates and a positive economic outlook will keep the NZD elevated through the next three years.