This report forecasts that by September 2009, growth in real GDP in Australia will slow to 0.5 per cent, the unemployment rate will rise to 5.5 per cent and underlying inflation will stay above 3.0 per cent.
The Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends provides forecasts of the state of the Australian economy. Variables forecasted include: the growth in GDP growth, consumption, the unemployment rate, inflation, the 90-day bill rate and the exchange rate. The forecasts are generated using econometric techniques which combine both historical information and forward information contained in, for example, consumer expectations, leading indexes of economic activity, and financial futures. The monthly updates of forecasts for the ensuing four quaters provide information in advance of official quarterly data.