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These charts provide a visual summary of the key drivers of the change between the 2016–17 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) and the 2017–18 Budget. The estimates in this chart pack are the Government’s not the PBO’s and cover the period 2016–17 to 2020–21.
This series of charts differs from previous versions published by the PBO. Rather than examining all major heads of revenue and payment programs as done previously, this version focusses only on the areas which are driving the change between MYEFO and Budget. The PBO will be seeking feedback from stakeholders on the new approach later in the year.
Each page contains two charts. The top chart shows the historical trend and the estimates for the 2017–18 Budget and the previous MYEFO. The bottom chart decomposes the change between MYEFO and the 2017-18 Budget into policy changes, and parameter and other variations.
Data contained in these charts are primarily based on information published in the 2017–18 Budget, as well as the 2016–17 MYEFO and government agency annual reports. Where applicable, additional information provided by agencies has supplemented the publicly available information.
At the aggregate level the underlying cash balance, total receipts, and total payments charts have been prepared on a cash basis. Charts on individual revenue heads and expenditure programs have been prepared on an accruals basis, consistent with the presentation of decisions in the Budget papers.
Consistent with the Budget, the charts show the financial impact of policy decisions up to and including 2020–21. The charts show movements due to parameter and other variations since the 2016–17 MYEFO, which are only available for the 2016–17 to 2019–20 years. This is because the last year of the forward estimates at MYEFO was 2019–20, with the 2020–21 projection only being published at Budget.
The PBO does not have access to the details of provisions for individual items in the Contingency Reserve. Accordingly, the charts in this report are subject to the qualification that they are prepared in the absence of information on the possible impact of any provisions in the Contingency Reserve.