Risk of reconviction among offenders who commence the Blacktown Traffic Offender Program

1 November 2012

This paper examines the profile of offenders who commenced the Blacktown Traffic Offender Program between 1994 and 2011 and investigates which factors predict re-offending.

Method: Descriptive statistics were used to examine the profile of program participants. Logistic regression models were used to determine which participant characteristics were associated with an increased risk of reconviction (for any offence and any traffic offence).

Results: Fifteen per cent of participants committed a new offence in the 2 years following program commencement, and 11 per cent committed a further traffic offence. Being male, aged between 16 and 20 years, Indigenous, having a prior criminal record, and having 3 or more concurrent offences were all associated with an increased risk of being convicted for any further offence. Being aged between 16 and 20 years, living in more disadvantaged areas, having a prior criminal record, and having 3 or more concurrent offences were associated with an increased likelihood of being convicted for a new traffic offence. Approximately two-thirds of offenders who present with 4 or more risk factors go on to commit any new offence and one-third commit a new traffic offence.

Conclusion: Results suggests that certain individual characteristics indicate an elevated risk of reconviction for any further offence, and further traffic offences in the 2 years following commencement of the Blacktown Traffic Offender Program. Offenders who present with multiple (4 or more) risk factors are at significantly greater risk of reconviction.

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