Updating the AHURI housing microsimulation model (HOUSEMOD) - research paper

• Robert Tanton, Justine McNamara
• Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute

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06 November 2008In recent projects with AHURI, the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) has been using a microsimulation model of the Australian housing system. This model is based on the 1998 99 Household Expenditure Survey (HES), combined with data from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. The model updates the 1998 99 HES using NATSEM’s static microsimulation model of Australia’s tax and transfer system, STINMOD. This regional microsimulation housing model, HOUSEMOD, is capable of measuring at a detailed regional level the incidence of various government housing programs, the impact of reforms to those programs and the interaction between housing and non-housing programs. Two earlier versions of the model were developed – the original version and a later version, which incorporated a forecasting component.

The model has been used in a number of NATSEM-AHURI research projects, but with the release of new ABS income survey data and continuing changes in house prices, rents and housing affordability across Australia, an updated version of the model was required. This paper describes the process of updating HOUSEMOD.

In the next section of this report, the authors briefly describe the existing HOUSEMOD model and then go on to explain the various aspects of the current update of the model. Finally, they briefly discuss possible future updates and refinements.