• Nadine Smith
• NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

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14 February 2011This paper examines some reasons for the apparent increase in the rate of juvenile reconviction between 2004-05 and 2006-07.

Method: Observed and predicted reconviction rates were investigated for the 2004-05 (n=4,225) and 2006-07 (n=4,368) cohorts of juvenile offenders given non-custodial sanctions. Various factors (for example, number of prior police cautions) were included in the Group Risk Assessment Model to determine whether they eliminated the discrepancy between the observed and predicted reconviction rates. The profile of re-offences across cohorts was also compared.

Results: Two factors may explain the discrepancy between the observed and predicted reconviction rates in 2006-07: (1) a higher than expected rate of reconviction among juveniles dealt with via a Youth Justice Conference; and (2) the absence in the Group Risk Assessment Model of any control for the number of prior police cautions received by a juvenile offender. The higher than expected rate of reconviction among juveniles dealt with via a Youth Justice Conference in 2006-07 appears partly attributable to changes in policing practices.

Conclusion: It is recommended that the use of the Group Risk Assessment Model be restricted to young offenders dealt with by way of the Children’s Court.