Behind the numbers: downward trend reverses as Australia begins climb to new emissions high

29 January 2016
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Emissions grew 1.3 per cent over FY15 – the first increase in fiscal year emissions since 2005-06, ten years ago, when Australian emissions reached their historic peak, according to this report.

Summary
The government’s latest emissions projections were released in late December, along with an update to the NGGI for FY 2014-15, providing more detailed insight into the downgrading of Australia’s abatement task, and the government’s long-term emissions outlook.

In this Market Update, we go behind the numbers to identity the key trends and implications:

  •  The government’s latest emissions outlook has been downgraded to more accurately reflect flatter economic activity, as flagged in our March 2015 update
  • Findings indicate national emissions grew 1.3 per cent over FY15 – the first increase in fiscal year emissions since 2005-06, ten years ago, when Australian emissions reached their historic peak
  • Government figures indicate Australia will continue on a new upward emissions trajectory, with forecast growth of 6 per cent to 2020, despite current policy
  • The government has confirmed emissions will not be cut to minus 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020, meaning it will utilise its carry-over credit under the Kyoto Protocol to meet its international commitment
  • Notably, analysis indicates that national emissions have now commenced an upward trajectory, with Australia’s emissions growth rate through to 2020 projected to be among the highest of all developed economies

  • Moreover, we project that Australia’s national emissions will remain on a growth pathway, despite current policy, with Australia on track to exceed its historic 2005-06 high, while no peak in emissions is expected to occur prior to 2030

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Suggested Citation

RepuTex, 2016, Behind the numbers: downward trend reverses as Australia begins climb to new emissions high, RepuTex, viewed 09 December 2016, <http://apo.org.au/node/61140>.

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