Economic forecasting

Working paper

29 Nov 2018

'Nowcasting' is the prediction of the current state of the economy based on a range of partial indicators before the official economic statistics are released. It assists in the early identification of ‘turning points’ or significant shifts in momentum in the economy.

Report

21 Nov 2018

This paper explores the future of public sector agricultural forecasting in the context of the past evolution of ABARES work. It identifies a range of challenges and opportunities for people involved in public sector forecasting.

Report

20 Nov 2018

This paper argues that there has been some progress in introducing economic reforms, but the effect has been stifled by the implementation of protectionist measures. More reforms will be needed if Indonesia is to boost economic growth and attract much-needed investment, especially in infrastructure.

Report

14 Nov 2018

This report puts the openness and international connectedness of the Australian economy into historical and comparative perspective. Understanding these trends is important for public perceptions of globalisation and how these perceptions inform public policy.

Report

13 Nov 2018

This report establishes quantitative and qualitative information on what Pacific New Zealanders’ contributions are to the economy, from a living standards perspective. This is a critical component in our understanding of the range of capital stocks and assets that Pacific New Zealanders possess and use...

Report

8 Nov 2018

This report argues that to ensure Western Australia realises economic opportunities in the Indo-Pacific, the state government should orient its international engagement towards the emerging global growth countries of India, Indonesia, Vietnam and wider ASEAN.

Case study

9 Oct 2018

Revitalisation of an urban stream improves amenity and increases land value.

This project includes transformation of a number of drains in the heavily urbanised 23.35 km2 Bannister Creek Catchment into living streams and wetlands. An economic study was undertaken on one of the sites...

Report

1 Oct 2018

‘Big Australia’ means an inordinate appeal to high population growth in order to boost growth in aggregate GDP, and in so doing, devaluing the environmental and social consequences. Why so, asks this report, and must it remain so?

Report

Quantifying the bottom line of improved productivity, retention, and wellness
1 Oct 2018

The business case for High Performance Buildings (HPBs) traditionally cites energy savings and increased asset value as the most appealing incentives. But another – and arguably greater – form of enhanced value creation that comes through HPBs is rarely discussed: HPBs benefit the people who...

Report

6 Sep 2018

This report analyses projections for receipts and spending at a detailed level over the period to 2028‐29 to explain the main reasons for the projected return to surplus, fall in net debt, and increase in net financial worth over this period. This analysis takes the...

Report

15 Aug 2018

This analysis reviews Indonesia’s recent economic performance and sets out why the present growth path is inadequate. It analyses structural problems with the current growth model and assesses to what extent Jokowi’s policy efforts have improved Indonesia’s growth trajectory.

Report

The 13th annual statistical report of the HILDA Survey
31 Jul 2018

The Melbourne Institute publishes the latest findings from the HILDA Survey each year, allowing Australians to see how different aspects of their lives have changed over time. This report presents key findings from Waves 1 to 16 of the HILDA Survey.

Report

31 Jul 2018

This paper outlines some of the findings from the 2018 HILDA report that may have ramifications for social and economic policy.

Briefing paper

30 Jul 2018

Australia Institute research has consistently shown there is no correlation between lower company tax rates, employment or economic growth. This analysis shows that foreign investors will be the unambiguous winners of the proposed company tax cut.

Report

Measuring the impact of travel times and station location on job and housing accessibility
10 Jul 2018

The Committee for Sydney and Sydney Business Chamber have produced economic modelling which concludes that a 15-minute journey between the CBD and Parramatta will deliver a bigger jobs benefit for Western Sydney than a slower journey would.

Discussion paper

10 Jul 2018

The UK’s longstanding current account deficit indicates that the UK economy has a fundamental problem of international competitiveness.

Report

5 Jul 2018

This report assesses the influence of the current system of Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation (HFE) on productivity, efficiency and economic growth; the incentives for the states to undertake reforms that improve the operation of their jurisdictions; and on the states’ abilities to prepare and deliver annual...

Report

4 Jul 2018

The UK’s vote to leave the EU arose in part from deep social and geographical divides across the country. But could the decision to leave impact upon those same inequalities?

Working paper

18 Jun 2018

We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts.

Report

18 Jun 2018

This report on the demand outlook for thermal coal in our region has forecast strong appetite for thermal (energy) coal across existing and emerging Asian markets between now and 2030.

Overview

 

Items: 118