The predictive power of Box office prophecy

Information technology

Overall, Box office Prophecy is very successful. The data show that amazingly accurate predictions can be made. Ten or so participants between them often have enough information to accurately assign probabilities to each box office 'bucket' or possible outcome. The results leave no doubt that while no single participant has generally reliable information, participants as a group possess solid information about potential box offices and that this information can be captured by a properly designed process. In part this accuracy is derived from the fact that the predictions are in the form of probabilities rather than a single number.

Box office Prophecy has been used to study 16 film openings and 16 total box offices in the Australian spring of 2006, for a total of 32 predictions (including rehearsals). Currently, the outcome of the 16 openings are known as are the totals of 11 of the films, giving us a total of 27 predictions to study today. Of course, there are more to come as the totals for the additional 5 (giving us 16 predictions for the total box office) become known but we have enough data now to make some statements about accuracy.

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