What happened to people who left benefit system during the year ended 30 June 2014

12 Sep 2018

In February 2017, the Social Policy Evaluation and Research Unit (Superu) released the report Off-benefit transitions: Where do people go? (the ‘Superu report’). That report examined the characteristics of people who exited benefits and their outcomes over the next two years. It was prepared by Taylor Fry Pty Limited, Consulting Actuaries and Analytics Professionals, using linked administrative data in Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI).

Our analysis:

  • Repeats some of the analysis for a group of people exiting benefits after the 2012–2013 Welfare Reforms to enable comparison to the pre-reform cohort examined in the Superu report.
  • Examines what happens to peoples' earnings after exiting benefits.
  • Looks at how many of those exiting benefits are able to remain off benefits, and whether they are able to sustain employment.
  • Examines how people’s outcomes differ depending on why they exited benefits.

This is expected to improve understanding of what is happening to people after they leave the benefit system, which could help the Ministry of Social Development (‘the Ministry’) and the wider social sector improve supports provided to these people.

The analysis in this report is purely descriptive and no work has been done to attribute cause of or to understand reasons for any differences in outcomes between the two cohorts examined. In particular, no attempts have yet been made to control for differences in the characteristics or histories of the two cohorts. Any comments in the report on reasons for differences between cohorts are speculative in nature and further work would be needed to confirm.

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