The Clean Energy Regulator has today published the 2018 certificate shortfall list and large scale generation certificate market update - February 2019 following final surrender by liable entities for the 2018 assessment year.
Across both the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target and Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, 93.3 per cent of certificates were surrendered on time by Renewable Energy Target liable entities (usually electricity retailers).
Surrender rates for small-scale technology certificates was 99.9 per cent. Surrender rates for large-scale generation certificates was 86.1 per cent, with a shortfall of 3.9 million large-scale generation certificates or 13.9 per cent of total liability.
In October 2018, the agency released an industry position on shortfall. This position stated that as the Renewable Energy Target will be exceeded, the agency has no objections to the use of shortfall in the expectation that clients will true up their position by surrendering sufficient LGCs in a subsequent year, as allowed for under the law.
The use of shortfall by liable entities has substantially shifted demand for large-scale generation certificates from the current year into future years, leaving a surplus of 7.1 million large-scale generation certificates after final surrender. As large-scale generation certificate spot prices fell from above $71.90 to $39, the impact of the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target on household electricity prices will also decrease.
The Certificate shortfall register dataset can be found here.