Policy report
Existential climate-related security risk: a scenario approach
Publisher
Climate change mitigation
Climate change
National security
Risk
Scenario planning
Climate risk
Description
Overview
- Analysis of climate-related security threats depends significantly on understanding the strengths and limitations of climate science projections. Much scientific knowledge produced for climate policy-making is conservative and reticent.
- Climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilisation. A new approach to climate-related security risk-management is thus required, giving particular attention to the high-end and difficult-to-quantify “fat-tail” possibilities.
- This may be most effectively explored by scenario analysis. A 2050 scenario is outlined in which accelerating climate- change impacts pose large negative consequences to humanity which might not be undone for centuries.
- To reduce such risks and to sustain human civilisation, it is essential to build a zero-emissions industrial system very quickly. This requires the global mobilisation of resources on an emergency basis, akin to a wartime level of response.
Publication Details
Copyright:
Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration 2019
Access Rights Type:
open
Publication place:
Melbourne
Post date:
5 Jun 2019