China’s 2020 coronavirus epidemic is first and foremost a human tragedy, but it also has economic ramifications, both for China and for its trading partners.
This paper estimates the direct and immediate effects of the coronavirus epidemic on the revenues of Australia’s major export industries. It breaks down Australia’s exports to China by major industry group, estimates the China concentration of each industry’s exports, and evaluates the risk of market disruption for each industry. Of 18 major export industries (9 in goods and 9 in services), the epidemic poses a high risk of disruption for four industries and a medium risk of disruption for four industries.
Industries at high risk of disruption from coronavirus are:
- Passenger transport
- Business travel
- Education services
Industries at medium risk of disruption from coronavirus are:
- Freight transport
- Financial services
- Management consulting
The total effect of an event like the coronavirus on GDP is contingent on many factors and would require much more detailed modeling than is undertaken in this paper.