This paper concludes that the linked US-China trade, technology and geopolitical conflicts have precipitated a new Cold War. The author outlines that the world’s two major powers are wrestling for strategic advantage in an increasingly bitter contest to determine which of them will be the pre-eminent state of the 21st century. He presents nine recommendations to improve the relationship.
Preventing, or mitigating, worst case outcomes will require the US and China to accommodate each other’s strategic interests. This won’t be easy because of diminished trust, their different world views, the systemic nature of their confrontation and domestic politics.
A second Cold War could be worse than the first, given the interdependence of the US and Chinese economies, their centrality to global prosperity and the proliferation of dangerous military and digital technologies.
The paper draws out the risks — and likely consequences — for a system already in a state of flux as the transition to a post-American world accelerates and the coronavirus wreaks havoc on the world economy and international trade.