This briefing note examines the long-term impact of the COVID early superannuation release scheme on retirement incomes and age pension entitlements.

A key policy question is whether the short term needs the COVID early release of super scheme seeks to address involves an acceptable long-term trade off for both the individual and taxpayers generally.

The headline results of the analysis suggest a poor trade-off for both individuals and taxpayers.

Without replenishing early release amounts total retirement incomes are materially lower and the long-term age pension costs borne by taxpayers could be more than twice the present value of the withdrawn early release amounts – although the effect diminishes with the age of the applicant and proximity to retirement.