Briefing paper

In May 2021, the Institute for Government and Wellcome Trust convened two private roundtables on medium- to long-term future scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic. The discussions were to update scenarios identified in a similar exercise one year ago, and to go further in identifying policy responses.

At the first roundtable, a group of scientists from the UK, US, India and Australia discussed best- and worst-case scenarios, exploring different biological assumptions about how the virus would develop. At the second, a group of current and former policy makers discussed the implications of these future scenarios, focusing on key questions facing world leaders as they gather for the G7 conference on 11 June, as well as questions of domestic policy.

This document identifies the most important insights from these roundtables.

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