AEMO publishes this Wholesale Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities under clauses 4.1.8 and 4.5.11 of the Wholesale Electricity Market Rules. This publication is generally based on information available to AEMO as at 1 June 2022 unless otherwise indicated.

Key findings:

• The 10% POE peak demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9% over the outlook period. This is higher than the average annual peak demand growth of 0.2% forecast in the 2021 WEM ESOO, with the increase primarily driven by forecast stronger growth in demand from large industrial loads (LILs), residential customers, and uptake of electric vehicles (EVs).
• Operational consumption is forecast to decline at an average annual rate of 0.3% over the 10-year outlook period, compared to the forecast decline of 0.8% in the 2021 WEM ESOO.
• Capacity shortfalls are projected from 2025-26, assuming no new capacity becomes committed. The projected shortfall is driven by the combined impacts of the forecast growth in peak demand and lower capacity following the retirement of Muja C unit 6.
• A new record for minimum demand of 765 MW was set on 14 November 2021. If left unconstrained, minimum demand is forecast to fall as low as 11 MW by 2026-27 due to continued growth in DPV installations. Mitigation actions are either in place or being investigated by AEMO to prevent minimum operational demand causing instability in the power system. These actions support the WA Government’s Energy Transformation Strategy (ETS)6 to enable the transition to more renewables, and greater decentralisation through higher distributed energy resources (DER).