A Victorian ReachTEL poll, conducted Thursday night from a sample of 1650, gives Labor a 51-49 two party lead, a one point gain for the Coalition since the November 2014 election. Primary votes appear to be 40.1% for the Coalition, 34.6% for Labor and 10.7% for the Greens, but we are told that Labor’s support rises to 36.8% with undecided voters who lean to Labor included, so presumably the first primary votes given include undecided voters.
Although Labor is still in an election-winning position, opposition leader Matthew Guy leads Premier Daniel Andrews 51-49 as better Premier. ReachTEL uses a forced choice question for its better PM/Premier results, and this removes the pro-incumbent skew that other polls, such as Newspoll and Ipsos, show. ReachTEL’s better PM/Premier results should not be compared with polls that do not use a forced choice question.
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