Heather Booth


Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions

Heather Booth, Rob J. Hyndman, Leonie Tickle and Piet de Jong compare the short- to medium- term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting.

Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review

Heather Booth reviews the performances of alternative approaches to demographic and population forecasting over the past 25 years.
Working paper

Beyond three score years and ten: prospects for longevity in Australia

Heather Booth and Leonie Tickle present new forecasts of sex- and age-specific mortality for four post-50 age groups and demonstrate the extent to which longevity is likely to increase over the lifetime of age cohorts now alive.

The future aged: new projections of Australia's elderly population

In this reappraisal of the available data, Heather Booth and Leonie Tickle conclude that official sources underestimate the future size of the aged population, especially the female aged and the oldest aged.

Age-time interactions in mortality projection: Applying Lee-Carter to Australia

Application of the Lee-Carter method to Australian data shows that model assumptions are not always met because of age-time interactions. In this article Heather Booth, John Maindonald and Len Smith adapt the Lee-Carter method to take account of departures from linearity in the dominant time...