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Aim: To describe a simulation model of the NSW prison system and demonstrate its utility as a tool for examining the effects of changes to the criminal justice system that influence the number of prisoners in custody.
Method: The model consists of...
Aim: To explain the rapid rise in the NSW prison population over the five years from 2011 to 2015.
Methods: Descriptive analysis of court, police and prison data. Kendall’s tau was used to test for significant change in trend...
Aim: To consider trends in bail and remand prior to and immediately following the implementation of the Bail Act (2013) on 20 May 2014 and the ‘show cause’ amendments on 28 January 2015.
Method: Descriptive analysis of trends in police use of...
This study finds that although suspended sentences were introduced as an alternative to prison, in New South Wales they appear to have had the opposite effect.
Aim: To see whether the introduction of suspended sentences reduced the number of offenders...
This is the first study to evaluate the effectiveness of parole supervision in Australia.
Although more than 12,000 offenders are on parole at any given time, little is known about the effectiveness of parole supervision in reducing reoffending. The few studies...
This study finds evidence that parole is effective in reducing the risk of re-offending in Australia.
The current study sought to address four questions of importance to correctional policy:
1. Does unconditional release increase the risk, speed or seriousness...
This study finds that offending on parole is less common than previous studies have suggested.
Aim: To measure the rate of re-offending on parole and identify the predictors of both general and violent offending on parole. To describe the types...
This paper provides a preliminary analysis of the rapid rise in the NSW prison population from January 2013 to March 2014.
Method: Descriptive analysis of court, crime, arrest and correctional data, and ARIMA modelling of prison trends.
Results: The key factors...
This study examined the risk of re-offending of those who received an intensive correction order, relative to those who received periodic detention and suspended sentences with supervision.
Method: Details of offenders’ demographic and offence characteristics, prior convictions and penalties received, and re-offences were...
Crime statistician Dr Don Weatherburn speaks with Fran Kelly about his new book Arresting Incarceration, which examines the growing trend in Aboriginal incarceration rates.
Between 1992 and 2012, the rate of Indigenous imprisonment per head of population soared by more than 50 per cent.