Beyond the budget 2022-23: fiscal outlook and scenarios
This report presents the Parliamentary Budget Office’s independent projections for the balance sheet, major fiscal aggregates, and revenue and expense categories across the medium term (2026-27 to 2032-33). It also includes a scenario analysis of Australia’s long-term fiscal sustainability to 2062-63.
Tackling rising inflation and slowing growth: government’s big decision on how to share the pain
The economic crisis facing the United Kingdom is very different to the 2008 financial crash and the early 1990s recession – which means a very different response is required by the government, argues Gemma Tetlow in this report.
Current scheme implementation and forecasting for the NDIS
This inquiry report recommends that the National Disability Insurance Agency, with the scheme's actuary and Board, review methods and approaches to managing the financial sustainability of the NDIS, to ensure appropriate emphasis is placed on measuring the benefits of the scheme and promoting these benefits...
Revising down the rise of China
The authors of this report argue that China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown, owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth.
The return of inflation: what it means for Australia
Inflation is rising around the world, the sting in the tail of the pandemic economic stimulus packages unleashed by governments in 2020. This analysis paper examines the implications for prices and wages growth in Australia.
Economic and political outlook 2022
2022 is shaping up as a pivotal year across the economic and political spectrums and it comes at a critical time, in terms of the need for policy action in Australia. This report argues that governments around the country must make tough policy decisions in...
World development report 2022: finance for an equitable recovery
This report focuses on the interrelated economic risks that households, businesses, financial institutions and governments worldwide are facing as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis. The report offers new insights from research on the interconnectedness of balance sheets and the potential spillover effects across sectors.
False economy: the economic benefits of the NDIS and the consequences of government cost-cutting
The National Disability Insurance Agency's (NDIA's) annual financial sustainability report of December 2020 (AFSRDec20) made waves in the disability support community when it was released earlier this year. This report discusses some of the issues surrounding the new NDIA modelling, in addition to assessing the...
Bending the trend
The Morrison Government has released a ‘whole of economy plan’ to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This paper focuses on the plausibility of the Morrison Government’s belief that the course of the Australian economy can be significantly altered without changes in policy, without the...
New Zealand’s place in the world
This discussion paper highlights how some of the long-standing memes, which have dominated the local discourse no longer apply in a post-COVID world. In particular, New Zealand’s openness to external trade and foreign investment, and the role of migration in driving population growth have all...
Future directions: ways forward for the economies of Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta and The Hills – the Central City District of Sydney
The report examines the economic trajectory of the Central City District economies of Western Sydney in the boom years prior to the COVID-19 recession.
The MMT hoax
Economic history teaches us that sharply deteriorating macroeconomic conditions create a vacuum for alternative policy-oriented frameworks to emerge. This paper evaluates the macroeconomic worth of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concludes that adhering to the policy prescriptions of MMT would lead to disastrous macroeconomic consequences...
Australian labour force participation: historical trends and future prospects
This paper outlines trends in labour force participation rates over recent decades that can be explained by a model with identified age and cohort effects, and a limited number of other covariates. This paper represents a first attempt at using this type of empirical life-cycle...
Monetary policy, equity markets and the information effect
How monetary policy affects the economy is a central question in macroeconomics. Standard economic thinking predicts interest rate cuts boost economic activity. This idea has recently been challenged by claims that changes in monetary policy have a so-called ‘information effect’. Calvin He explores this concept...
Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy, and changes in climate risk assessment
This study assesses the global macroeconomic consequences of changes in climate risk. The authors also explore the impact of country-specific, economy-wide carbon taxes as a representative policy action to drive the global economy to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Economic and political outlook 2021
2020 was a year of rapid policy development in Australia. It brought twists and turns in decision-making, as governments responded to a crisis that remains with us in 2021, as nations keep working to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. This publication provides valuable analysis to help...
Back in business? WA small businesses and the impact of COVID-19
The impact of COVID-19 has been felt across the economy and business sector, but for small businesses these shocks can be more challenging to deal with, with fewer resources to draw from. This report covers findings from the 2020 BCEC Small Business Survey including the...
The agreement on the future relationship: a first analysis
After years of negotiations, the United Kingdom and the European Union have struck a deal on their future relationship. This deal is one of the most critical agreements the UK will negotiate in the post-Brexit era. This paper offers a first attempt at assessing the...
Business experiences in 2020 and outlook for 2021
This report is the last in a series of monthly reports by the Australian Industry Group about Australia’s business experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic and recession in 2020.
A wave of disadvantage across NSW: impact of the COVID-19 recession
COVID-19 has started an economic tsunami that threatens to overwhelm progress towards reducing disadvantage across New South Wales. This report provides estimates based on international, Australian and original research on the impact of rising unemployment on disadvantage across NSW’s regions.
Estimating the economic impacts of lowering current levels of income support payments
This analysis, by Deloitte Access Economics, suggests that the federal government's planned cuts to the coronavirus supplement for people on JobSeeker, Youth Allowance and parenting payments could see the economy lose $31.3 billion and 145,000 full-time jobs over the next two years.
Rebuild New Zealand: retail sector
In its report PwC analyses data from a range of sources to paint a picture of the trading environment in the wake of COVID-19, and considers what developments in consumer sentiment may tell us about what lies ahead for the retail sector.
A cost benefit analysis of 5 extra days at COVID-19 alert level 4
COVID-19 is both a health and an economic crisis for New Zealand. How it handles the health crisis affects the economy, and how it handles the economic crisis will affect New Zealander’s health in the future. Looking at health or economic costs in isolation risks...
The economic challenge of COVID-19
This paper argues that attempting to eradicate the COVID-19 virus would impose unbearable economic and social costs and Australia must find low-cost ways to live with the virus, rather than remaining constrained while waiting for a vaccine that may take years to arrive, if ever.
Guaranteeing the right start
There is a strong case for bold policy interventions to prevent youth unemployment. This report argues for the government to ‘aim higher’ in its response to the coming unemployment crisis.