Economic forecasting

Alternate Term Label:
Demand forecasting
Policy report

The economic challenge of COVID-19

This paper argues that attempting to eradicate the COVID-19 virus would impose unbearable economic and social costs and Australia must find low-cost ways to live with the virus, rather than remaining constrained while waiting for a vaccine that may take years to arrive, if ever.

Australia’s exposure to regional economic disruption: investment

This paper discusses how the COVID-related recession will significantly dampen international capital flows in 2020.

Guaranteeing the right start

There is a strong case for bold policy interventions to prevent youth unemployment. This report argues for the government to ‘aim higher’ in its response to the coming unemployment crisis.
Working paper

Sectoral employment dynamics In Australia

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevention of further decline in aggregate employment and turning it around are high on the agenda of policymakers. This paper develops a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors of the Australian economy.
Working paper

Shutdown: estimating the COVID-19 employment shock

Australia’s governments are rightly spending record amounts trying to cushion Australian workers and businesses from the worst impacts of this unprecedented crisis. This paper shows that the economic shock from COVID-19 is going to be so big that more support will be needed.
Briefing paper

The same mistake twice: the self-defeating consequences of public sector pay freezes

This paper documents the harmful consequences of freezing public service pay, both for public sector workers and for the broader economy.

Economic scenarios

The impact of COVID-19 and related response measures on the New Zealand economy is highly uncertain. To reflect this uncertainty, this report considers several alternative paths that the economy may take. These paths vary based on different assumptions about the time spent at different COVID-19...
Briefing paper

Twice the size in a fraction of the time

This paper argues that it is likely that once the corona virus is under control, it will take time before the consumer economy is allowed to return to full strength. There could be pressure on governments in both Australia and the United States to follow...
Working paper

Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt

Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood...

Initial assessment of the impact of a COVID-19 induced economic downturn on NSW and Australian workers

This publication collates data on immediately impacted cohorts of the labour market who are already being adversely impacted by a collapse in aggregate demand resulting from strict policy responses to COVID-19, such as social distancing and travel restrictions.