Economic forecasting

ALTERNATIVE LABELS
Demand forecasting
NARROWER TERMS
Report

False economy: the economic benefits of the NDIS and the consequences of government cost-cutting

The National Disability Insurance Agency's (NDIA's) annual financial sustainability report of December 2020 (AFSRDec20) made waves in the disability support community when it was released earlier this year. This report discusses some of the issues surrounding the new NDIA modelling, in addition to assessing the...
Discussion paper

Bending the trend

The Morrison Government has released a ‘whole of economy plan’ to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This paper focuses on the plausibility of the Morrison Government’s belief that the course of the Australian economy can be significantly altered without changes in policy, without the...
Discussion paper

New Zealand’s place in the world

This discussion paper highlights how some of the long-standing memes, which have dominated the local discourse no longer apply in a post-COVID world. In particular, New Zealand’s openness to external trade and foreign investment, and the role of migration in driving population growth have all...
Report

Future directions: ways forward for the economies of Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta and The Hills – the Central City District of Sydney

The report examines the economic trajectory of the Central City District economies of Western Sydney in the boom years prior to the COVID-19 recession.
Policy report

The MMT hoax

Economic history teaches us that sharply deteriorating macroeconomic conditions create a vacuum for alternative policy-oriented frameworks to emerge. This paper evaluates the macroeconomic worth of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and concludes that adhering to the policy prescriptions of MMT would lead to disastrous macroeconomic consequences...
Working paper

Australian labour force participation: historical trends and future prospects

This paper outlines trends in labour force participation rates over recent decades that can be explained by a model with identified age and cohort effects, and a limited number of other covariates. This paper represents a first attempt at using this type of empirical life-cycle...
Discussion paper

Monetary policy, equity markets and the information effect

How monetary policy affects the economy is a central question in macroeconomics. Standard economic thinking predicts interest rate cuts boost economic activity. This idea has recently been challenged by claims that changes in monetary policy have a so-called ‘information effect’. Calvin He explores this concept...
Report

Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy, and changes in climate risk assessment

This study assesses the global macroeconomic consequences of changes in climate risk. The authors also explore the impact of country-specific, economy-wide carbon taxes as a representative policy action to drive the global economy to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Report

Economic and political outlook 2021

2020 was a year of rapid policy development in Australia. It brought twists and turns in decision-making, as governments responded to a crisis that remains with us in 2021, as nations keep working to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. This publication provides valuable analysis to help...
Report

Back in business? WA small businesses and the impact of COVID-19

The impact of COVID-19 has been felt across the economy and business sector, but for small businesses these shocks can be more challenging to deal with, with fewer resources to draw from. This report covers findings from the 2020 BCEC Small Business Survey including the...
Report

Business experiences in 2020 and outlook for 2021

This report is the last in a series of monthly reports by the Australian Industry Group about Australia’s business experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic and recession in 2020.
Briefing paper

The agreement on the future relationship: a first analysis

After years of negotiations, the United Kingdom and the European Union have struck a deal on their future relationship. This deal is one of the most critical agreements the UK will negotiate in the post-Brexit era. This paper offers a first attempt at assessing the...
Report

A wave of disadvantage across NSW: impact of the COVID-19 recession

COVID-19 has started an economic tsunami that threatens to overwhelm progress towards reducing disadvantage across New South Wales. This report provides estimates based on international, Australian and original research on the impact of rising unemployment on disadvantage across NSW’s regions.
Report

Estimating the economic impacts of lowering current levels of income support payments

This analysis, by Deloitte Access Economics, suggests that the federal government's planned cuts to the coronavirus supplement for people on JobSeeker, Youth Allowance and parenting payments could see the economy lose $31.3 billion and 145,000 full-time jobs over the next two years.
Report

Rebuild New Zealand: retail sector

In its report PwC analyses data from a range of sources to paint a picture of the trading environment in the wake of COVID-19, and considers what developments in consumer sentiment may tell us about what lies ahead for the retail sector.
Report

A cost benefit analysis of 5 extra days at COVID-19 alert level 4

COVID-19 is both a health and an economic crisis for New Zealand. How it handles the health crisis affects the economy, and how it handles the economic crisis will affect New Zealander’s health in the future. Looking at health or economic costs in isolation risks...
Policy report

The economic challenge of COVID-19

This paper argues that attempting to eradicate the COVID-19 virus would impose unbearable economic and social costs and Australia must find low-cost ways to live with the virus, rather than remaining constrained while waiting for a vaccine that may take years to arrive, if ever.
Report

Australia’s exposure to regional economic disruption: investment

This paper discusses how the COVID-related recession will significantly dampen international capital flows in 2020.
Report

Guaranteeing the right start

There is a strong case for bold policy interventions to prevent youth unemployment. This report argues for the government to ‘aim higher’ in its response to the coming unemployment crisis.
Working paper

Sectoral employment dynamics In Australia

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevention of further decline in aggregate employment and turning it around are high on the agenda of policymakers. This paper develops a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors of the Australian economy.