Economic forecasting

Alternate Term Label:
Demand forecasting
NARROWER TERMS
Report

A wave of disadvantage across NSW: impact of the COVID-19 recession

COVID-19 has started an economic tsunami that threatens to overwhelm progress towards reducing disadvantage across New South Wales. This report provides estimates based on international, Australian and original research on the impact of rising unemployment on disadvantage across NSW’s regions.
Report

Estimating the economic impacts of lowering current levels of income support payments

This analysis, by Deloitte Access Economics, suggests that the federal government's planned cuts to the coronavirus supplement for people on JobSeeker, Youth Allowance and parenting payments could see the economy lose $31.3 billion and 145,000 full-time jobs over the next two years.
Report

Rebuild New Zealand: retail sector

In its report PwC analyses data from a range of sources to paint a picture of the trading environment in the wake of COVID-19, and considers what developments in consumer sentiment may tell us about what lies ahead for the retail sector.
Report

A cost benefit analysis of 5 extra days at COVID-19 alert level 4

COVID-19 is both a health and an economic crisis for New Zealand. How it handles the health crisis affects the economy, and how it handles the economic crisis will affect New Zealander’s health in the future. Looking at health or economic costs in isolation risks...
Policy report

The economic challenge of COVID-19

This paper argues that attempting to eradicate the COVID-19 virus would impose unbearable economic and social costs and Australia must find low-cost ways to live with the virus, rather than remaining constrained while waiting for a vaccine that may take years to arrive, if ever.
Report

Australia’s exposure to regional economic disruption: investment

This paper discusses how the COVID-related recession will significantly dampen international capital flows in 2020.
Report

Guaranteeing the right start

There is a strong case for bold policy interventions to prevent youth unemployment. This report argues for the government to ‘aim higher’ in its response to the coming unemployment crisis.
Working paper

Sectoral employment dynamics In Australia

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevention of further decline in aggregate employment and turning it around are high on the agenda of policymakers. This paper develops a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors of the Australian economy.
Working paper

Shutdown: estimating the COVID-19 employment shock

Australia’s governments are rightly spending record amounts trying to cushion Australian workers and businesses from the worst impacts of this unprecedented crisis. This paper shows that the economic shock from COVID-19 is going to be so big that more support will be needed.
Briefing paper

The same mistake twice: the self-defeating consequences of public sector pay freezes

This paper documents the harmful consequences of freezing public service pay, both for public sector workers and for the broader economy.