Population forecasting

NARROWER TERMS
Discussion paper

Silver tsunami or silver lining? Why we should not fear an ageing population

Media reports and political discourse on our ageing population often adopt a tone of panic. This discussion paper untangles the facts from the myths, so that Australians can look afresh at the population ageing issue – less from a perspective of panic than one of...
Conference paper

Greater Western Sydney regional transportation study: forecasting travel demand

This paper is based on a consulting project undertaken for the Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils (WSROC) to help understand the travel demand patterns that might arise from various land use and transport infrastructure scenarios in Western Sydney.
Report

Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: the role of immigration and population growth in Australia's post-pandemic recovery

This report argues that the COVID-19 pandemic affords an opportunity for Australia to rethink the immigration policy and planning framework. The federal government’s pre-pandemic reduction in the planning cap on permanent migration from 190,000 per annum to 160,000 should be set aside indefinitely as non-binding...
Conference paper

The changing population of Australia's major cities: trends and implications

Australian cities are experiencing rapid and profound change. This paper seeks to summarise some of the main social dimensions of that change by focusing on some of the major changes occurring in the population of metropolitan Australia.
Working paper

The contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants

International migrants are more attracted to cities with productive amenities whereas domestic migrants are more attracted to places with consumption amenities. Thus, in deciding on the type of city amenity to enhance, city officials implicitly choose the type of migrant that they attract as well...
Report

Future urban and regional settlement patterns: scenario analysis

This project assesses the economic impacts of a more decentralized population growth strategy that prioritizes greater regional growth in and around each of these four metropolitan regions. As part of this assessment, we analyse the high-level relationship between a city’s population size and its performance...
Report

Regional population growth – are we ready?

The RAI is calling for a new national awareness campaign to promote the opportunities of living in regional Australia, and help drive a population shift in coming decades. The recommendation is part of this new report that looks at the economic consequences of alternative population...
Report

Australia’s partner visa program: reform needed

Permanent residence visas issued to persons sponsored by an Australian resident for a partner visa make up 25% of Australia’s permanent entry migration program. This paper argues that this is because the partner visa is an attractive permanent residence option for the very large number...
Dataset

Victoria in Future 2019: data

This dataset comes with Victoria in Future 2019 report, and can be downloaded as Excel spreadsheets. Projections for Victoria and major regions cover the years 2016 to 2056. Projections for smaller geographic areas extend from 2016 to 2036. Data are available either for individual years...
Report

Victoria in Future 2019: population projections 2016 to 2056

Victoria in Future 2019 (VIF2019) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers in government, business and the community to understand the growing and changing population.
Journal article

An introduction to population projections for Australia

This paper provides a brief guide to many of the population projections prepared for Australia in recent years. It gives an overview of projection methods and selected results, a brief commentary on key aspects of the projections, and shows readers where to find more data...
Report

The 2019 election and the impending migrant parent deluge

This report explores the implications of the parent visa should it be implemented as implied by the limited information Labor has provided on the rules determining who is eligible. It could result in the issuance of some 200,000 parent visas in the next three years...
Strategy

Planning for Australia’s future population

This strategy document considers population growth and regional development in Australia.
Working paper

Amenities and the attractiveness of New Zealand cities

This new study from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research for the Building Better Homes, Towns, and Cities National Science Challenge uses census rent and wage data to compile quality of life and quality of business measures for 130 towns and cities in New Zealand.
Journal article

A whole-of-government approach to population policy for Australia

Australia is in the midst of a popularly-constructed crisis of population. This so-called crisis, in social terms, is not dissimilar to the many which have come before in Australia’s history.
Journal article

What sort of population policy should Australia adopt? Suggestions for migration, fertility and population research policy

The potential value of Australia implementing (and progressively refining over time) an integrated national policy to direct, anticipate, monitor and respond to population change (i.e. a ‘population policy’) would appear to be considerable.
Journal article

Australia should continue its current comprehensive population policy – at least for the next decade

Does the absence of precise targets for total population and for the rate of population growth mean that Australia does not have a population policy? That seems to be the popular perception based on the current debate about population, and no less an authority than...
Commentary

Policy on the run

Gladys Berejiklian wants fewer migrants for New South Wales. But that’s not a cost-free option, says a former senior immigration official.
Strategy

Northern Territory population growth strategy 2018-2028

This strategy document provides the framework for attracting people to the Territory, and encouraging those already here to stay for the long term.
Report

Why do we have a ‘Big Australia’?

‘Big Australia’ means an inordinate appeal to high population growth in order to boost growth in aggregate GDP, and in so doing, devaluing the environmental and social consequences. Why so, asks this report, and must it remain so?