Population forecasting

NARROWER TERMS


Report

Growing Australia’s smaller cities to better manage population growth

This report brings together three separate research projects to examine the capacity of Australia’s smaller cities to assist in managing population growth, including international and national migration. It also provides advice on which policy instruments and programs are most likely to redirect population movements to...
Working paper

New population projections for Australia and the States and Territories, with a particular focus on population ageing

This paper presents new population projections for Australia and the states and territories for the period 2021-2041. The paper describes the input data used, projection assumptions made, and an outline of the projection model.
Report

The Suburban Rail Loop: not needed, not fit for purpose and a debt bomb

This report examines the merits of the Victorian government's decision to invest in the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) project, as part of their overall 'Big Build' infrastructure policy.
Report

Movers and stayers: localising power to level up towns

The need to address place-based disparities has recently taken centre stage in British politics. In an ongoing period of political change, it is imperative that addressing regional inequalities stays firmly on the agenda. This report investigate the desirability and feasibility of these ambitions.
Briefing paper

Visualising the population impacts of COVID-19 in Victoria

One of the biggest impacts of the COVID-19 crisis so far has been a sudden reduction in Victoria's population. This paper explores the implications of the crisis in an historical perspective. It provides estimates of the impacts on different electorates and develops a cluster analysis...
Report

Understanding what attracts new residents to smaller cities

This research examines key drivers of migration flows and settlement patterns across Australia, and identifies key barriers to and opportunities for greater population decentralisation.
Report

The great migration: leaving our cities for the regions - part 1: internal migration patterns, motivations and experiences

The internal migration of Australians from metro to regional areas has received increasing attention since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. This first instalment of the Future of Work Lab’s 'Regional Migration Survey' aims to better understand the migration patterns, motivations and experiences of internal...
Report

Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: the role of immigration and population growth in Australia's post-pandemic recovery

This report argues that the COVID-19 pandemic affords an opportunity for Australia to rethink the immigration policy and planning framework. The federal government’s pre-pandemic reduction in the planning cap on permanent migration from 190,000 per annum to 160,000 should be set aside indefinitely as non-binding...
Discussion paper

Silver tsunami or silver lining? Why we should not fear an ageing population

Media reports and political discourse on our ageing population often adopt a tone of panic. This discussion paper untangles the facts from the myths, so that Australians can look afresh at the population ageing issue – less from a perspective of panic than one of...
Report

Regional population growth – are we ready?

The RAI is calling for a new national awareness campaign to promote the opportunities of living in regional Australia, and help drive a population shift in coming decades. The recommendation is part of this new report that looks at the economic consequences of alternative population...
Report

Australia’s partner visa program: reform needed

Permanent residence visas issued to persons sponsored by an Australian resident for a partner visa make up 25% of Australia’s permanent entry migration program. This paper argues that this is because the partner visa is an attractive permanent residence option for the very large number...
Dataset

Victoria in Future 2019: data

This dataset comes with Victoria in Future 2019 report, and can be downloaded as Excel spreadsheets. Projections for Victoria and major regions cover the years 2016 to 2056. Projections for smaller geographic areas extend from 2016 to 2036. Data are available either for individual years...
Report

Victoria in Future 2019: population projections 2016 to 2056

Victoria in Future 2019 (VIF2019) is the official state government projection of population and households. Projections are used by decision makers in government, business and the community to understand the growing and changing population.
Working paper

The contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants

International migrants are more attracted to cities with productive amenities whereas domestic migrants are more attracted to places with consumption amenities. Thus, in deciding on the type of city amenity to enhance, city officials implicitly choose the type of migrant that they attract as well...
Journal article

An introduction to population projections for Australia

This paper provides a brief guide to many of the population projections prepared for Australia in recent years. It gives an overview of projection methods and selected results, a brief commentary on key aspects of the projections, and shows readers where to find more data...
Report

Future urban and regional settlement patterns: scenario analysis

This project assesses the economic impacts of a more decentralized population growth strategy that prioritizes greater regional growth in and around each of these four metropolitan regions. As part of this assessment, we analyse the high-level relationship between a city’s population size and its performance...
Report

The 2019 election and the impending migrant parent deluge

This report explores the implications of the parent visa should it be implemented as implied by the limited information Labor has provided on the rules determining who is eligible. It could result in the issuance of some 200,000 parent visas in the next three years...
Strategy

Planning for Australia’s future population

This strategy document considers population growth and regional development in Australia.
Journal article

Australia should continue its current comprehensive population policy – at least for the next decade

Does the absence of precise targets for total population and for the rate of population growth mean that Australia does not have a population policy? That seems to be the popular perception based on the current debate about population, and no less an authority than...
Journal article

A whole-of-government approach to population policy for Australia

Australia is in the midst of a popularly-constructed crisis of population. This so-called crisis, in social terms, is not dissimilar to the many which have come before in Australia’s history.