Economic modelling



Report

Impact of new entrants on the Safeguard Mechanism emissions budget

To understand the potential risks to meeting the Safeguard Mechanism emissions budget, RepuTex was engaged by the Climate Council and the Australian Conservation Foundation to model the potential effects of higher-than-expected emissions growth due to variation in fossil fuel production, and new entrants, on the...
Report

Emissions as usual: implications for the Safeguard Mechanism of LNG and coal mine projects

This report examines the implications of committed and proposed developments in the liquefied natural gas and coal mining sectors for reform of the Australian Safeguard Mechanism.
Report

Economic cost of violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation of people with disability

Other authors
Kirsten Armstrong, Sarina Lacey, Grant Lian, David Qi, Nansi Richards, Tomas Berry
The Disability Royal Commission contracted Taylor Fry and the Centre for International Economics to cost violence, abuse, neglect and exploitation experienced by people with disability in Australia. This report documents the project’s findings, in line with the Commission's agreed scope of work.
Report

Economic and policy outlook 2023

CEDA’s Economic and Policy Outlook 2023 looks at the key issues likely to shape economic and policy outcomes in the year ahead. It provides valuable analysis to help policy-makers and business respond to critical issues.
Report

Green investment: the prudent choice for prosperity

This paper sets out how to increase public spending on climate and nature in the United Kingdom, at speed - to maximise economic opportunities and ensure ongoing public support.
Report

Australian rail market outlook - December 2022

This report examines the outlook for Australia’s railway construction and maintenance work for the next 10 years and presents the key drivers of activity at a national and state level.
Report

Australia’s current, emerging and future workforce skills needs

This report shows that over the past year, the Australian labour market has tightened significantly. Five year employment projections indicate that jobs growth is expected to be highest across service industries, and in jobs requiring higher level qualifications.
Report

Western Australia's trade and economic relationship with China

The Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre was recently approached by the Australia China Business Council to evaluate the benefits of Western Australia’s trade, export and investment activity with China to the State’s households. This report outlines the findings.
Discussion paper

Do Australian households borrow to keep up with the Joneses?

This paper examines whether and how local income inequality affects household debt and its composition using household panel data for Australia from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey.
Report

Victoria on the edge: debt, deficits and unsustainable growth

The Australian economy faces the greatest series of financial risks in decades, as the odds of a global recession continue to increase. The authors of this report argue that the Victorian economy is particularly vulnerable to the economic shocks that are coming its way, because...
Policy report

Why climate policy scenarios are important, how to use them, and what has been learned

In response to climate uncertainty, researchers, businesses and policy-makers are turning to scenario analysis. The authors of this paper argue that greater use of models will help policy-makers understand the range of uncertainties and the sensitivity of policy outcomes, based on different model assumptions.
Report

The nature-based economy: how Australia’s prosperity depends on nature

This report calculates the Australian economy’s direct dependence on nature and the variation in direct dependency for every major industry sector. It also calls for government to create strong environment laws that protect nature and establishing an independent regulator to enforce them.
Report

Australia’s debt disaster: estimating interest repayments on federal government debt by 2030

The research in this report explores three scenarios which model the impact that rising cash rates will have on government bond yields and interest repayments on debt being rolled over, as well as new debt being added to Australia's balance sheet.
Working paper

Paying back Australia's COVID-19 debt

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a sudden and steep increase in Australia’s public debt, as in most other countries. This paper investigates and assesses ways in which Australia can bring its debt down to fiscally sustainable levels through the tax and transfer system.
Report

Antimicrobial resistance: designing a comprehensive macroeconomic modeling strategy

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a dominant and growing global health threat. This study summarises the existing literature on the identified factors driving AMR and reviews the factors that have been considered in existing macroeconomic studies. The paper also includes the major policy implications arising from...
Working paper

COVID-19 private pension withdrawals and unemployment tenures

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a range of previously untested major policy responses from governments, including allowing people to make early withdrawals from their superannuation accounts. This paper evaluates the impacts on people's retirement savings.
Report

Prices and profits after the pandemic

This analysis shows that the profits of the largest non-financial companies were up 34 per cent at the end of 2021, compared to pre-pandemic levels – rising significantly faster than inflation and wage growth. This report argues that some firms could have considerable market power...
Briefing paper

Wage price spiral or price wage spiral?

While significant concerns have been raised about the inflationary impacts of a five percent increase in the minimum wage, in reality, the authors of this paper argue that the direct inflationary impact of a five percent increase in all wages is only 1.27 percent, and...
Policy report

Research note: modelling of the 2022 Coalition and Labor child care policies

This paper provides results of modelling of the distributional impacts of Labor's proposed child care policy and the Coalition's recently legislated child care policy. Both policies are compared to the previous child care subsidy policy.
Policy report

Understanding structural effects of COVID-19 on the global economy: first steps

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses are likely to alter the global economy in a way that affects its ability to adjust to future shocks and changes. This paper develops a point of reference for thinking about developments which could be deemed long-term.
Report

The economic and employment consequences of net zero emissions by 2050 in Australia

This study builds on previous IPA research by analysing the potential economic and employment impact of a ban on all new coal, gas and oil projects – which at a minimum would be required for Australia to meet its net zero emissions by 2050 commitment.
Report

Pre-election economic and fiscal outlook 2022

Consistent with the Charter, the 2022 PEFO provides updated fiscal and economic estimates and projections, based on the best professional judgment of the Treasury and the Department of Finance, reflecting all known information at the time of the issue of the election writs.
Report

The economic benefits of high-quality universal early child education

This report reviews several economic aspects of Australia’s failure to both allocate sufficient economic resources to early child education and care services, and to ensure that those resources are used to provide the best-quality services possible.
Working paper

Fiscal policy in the COVID-19 era

This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling three scenarios using a macro-econometric model.
Report

Not so universal: how to reduce out-of-pocket healthcare payments

Hundreds of thousands of the sickest and poorest Australians are missing out on healthcare because of gaps in Medicare coverage and high fees charged by medical specialists. This report proposes some reforms that could save Australians about $1 billion in out-of-pocket payments each year.