Economic modelling

Working paper

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia: modelling approach

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia (EMMA) is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy and scenario analysis at the Treasury. It has been developed, tested and used since 2018. The focus of this paper is to outline the model’s structure and describe...
Report

Doherty modelling – assumptions of TTIQ and their impact on Phase 2 modelling

This report argues that the effectiveness of test, trace, isolate, quarantine (TTIQ) is likely to be dependent upon case numbers, but current modelling does not take this into account. As cases rise to unplanned levels, current TTIQ assumptions undermine Doherty modelling of Phase 2.
Report

Doherty modelling report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021

This report outlines different models of COVID-19 infection and vaccination used to define a target level of vaccine coverage for transition to Phase B of the National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response.
Report

National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response: economic impact analysis

In this paper, Treasury estimates the direct economic costs of the COVID‑19 management strategies modelled by the Doherty Institute through analysis of the direct impacts of activity restrictions and lockdowns used to manage the virus and contain outbreaks.
Discussion paper

Generation stressed: house prices and the cost of living in the 21st Century

This discussion paper explores how the affordability of home ownership has changed between generations over the last half century. It shows that the common framing of mortgage affordability places far too much emphasis on short-term interest rates, and far too little on inflation and wage...
Policy report

Tax and the fertility freefall: children, care and the Intergenerational Report

This paper argues that Australia should invest in financial support for parental care time for all children, with options suited to both parents, for at least the first 12 months after birth, and for universal public childcare for all children.
Report

Investing in better mental health in Australian workplaces

The research outlined in this report suggests that by requiring stronger monitoring and prevention measures in Australian workplaces, a significant share of mental illness and injury could be avoided. In addition to reducing the toll of mental illness for workers and their families, these measures...
Policy report

Protecting education exports: minimising the damage of China’s future economic coercion

In this paper, the authors outline how Australia can protect its education exports from potential economic coercion from China, sharing specific policy recommendations.
Report

Counting the cost to families: assessing childcare affordability in Australia

Despite government subsidies, childcare is still a significant cost for many families. This paper reviews available data on expenditure and affordability, and presents new analysis of household expenditure data to understand how much Australian families are spending on early childhood education and care, as a...
Report

The two Australias: the talkers versus the doers

The broader context for this research is the significant structural changes that have taken place across the Australian economy over the past 100 years. These changes are often discussed in the context of Australia industrialising away from its agrarian base, then de-industrialising in the shift...