Economic modelling

Report

Examining the social and economic costs of alcohol use in Australia: 2017/18

This report is the first national update in a decade of the costs of alcohol use. Using up-to-date methods of calculating costs and including a number of previously uncounted conditions and costs, it is substantially higher than the 2010 estimate of $14.4 billion.
Report

Inquiry into population, migration and agglomeration

This report investigates agglomeration economies and their ability to alter the economic productivity of cities, together with an examination of the key drivers of population growth and mobility in Australia.
Working paper

The lifetime fiscal impact of the Australian permanent migration program

The Fiscal Impact of New Australians model (FIONA) has been developed by the Treasury to estimate the fiscal impact of permanent migrants over their remaining lifetimes in Australia. This paper presents the methodological approach used in FIONA, along with the main modelling results.
Report

Australia's long-term emissions reduction plan: modelling and analysis

This report summarises the methods, assumptions and results from the economic modelling conducted to inform the development of the Australian government’s long-term emissions reduction plan and associated 'net zero emissions by 2050' target.
Report

False economy: the economic benefits of the NDIS and the consequences of government cost-cutting

The National Disability Insurance Agency's (NDIA's) annual financial sustainability report of December 2020 (AFSRDec20) made waves in the disability support community when it was released earlier this year. This report discusses some of the issues surrounding the new NDIA modelling, in addition to assessing the...
Discussion paper

All pain, no gain: the full cost of the National Party’s climate stance

This report explains the size and cause of the significant economic benefits associated with increasing the ambition of Australia’s 2030 target that are calculated by Deloitte Access Economics modelling, and relied upon by the Business Council of Australia.
Report

Markets are moving: the economic costs of Australia's climate inaction

This report looks at the economic impact that carbon border tariffs could have on Australia’s economy if appropriate measures are not taken to act on climate change now, in line with other key trading allies.
Report

E3 Opportunity assessment: developing the future energy workforce - final report 2021

This opportunity assessment describes a pathway to understanding the present and future energy workforce in Australia. Developing the workforce is crucial to enabling the clean energy transition and realising the RACE for 2030 vision of a customer-centred clean energy system.
Working paper

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia: modelling approach

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia (EMMA) is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy and scenario analysis at the Treasury. It has been developed, tested and used since 2018. The focus of this paper is to outline the model’s structure and describe...
Report

Doherty modelling – assumptions of TTIQ and their impact on Phase 2 modelling

This report argues that the effectiveness of test, trace, isolate, quarantine (TTIQ) is likely to be dependent upon case numbers, but current modelling does not take this into account. As cases rise to unplanned levels, current TTIQ assumptions undermine Doherty modelling of Phase 2.
Report

Doherty modelling report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021

This report outlines different models of COVID-19 infection and vaccination used to define a target level of vaccine coverage for transition to Phase B of the National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response.
Report

National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response: economic impact analysis

In this paper, Treasury estimates the direct economic costs of the COVID‑19 management strategies modelled by the Doherty Institute through analysis of the direct impacts of activity restrictions and lockdowns used to manage the virus and contain outbreaks.
Discussion paper

Generation stressed: house prices and the cost of living in the 21st Century

This discussion paper explores how the affordability of home ownership has changed between generations over the last half century. It shows that the common framing of mortgage affordability places far too much emphasis on short-term interest rates, and far too little on inflation and wage...
Policy report

Tax and the fertility freefall: children, care and the Intergenerational Report

This paper argues that Australia should invest in financial support for parental care time for all children, with options suited to both parents, for at least the first 12 months after birth, and for universal public childcare for all children.
Report

Investing in better mental health in Australian workplaces

The research outlined in this report suggests that by requiring stronger monitoring and prevention measures in Australian workplaces, a significant share of mental illness and injury could be avoided. In addition to reducing the toll of mental illness for workers and their families, these measures...
Policy report

Protecting education exports: minimising the damage of China’s future economic coercion

In this paper, the authors outline how Australia can protect its education exports from potential economic coercion from China, sharing specific policy recommendations.
Report

Counting the cost to families: assessing childcare affordability in Australia

Despite government subsidies, childcare is still a significant cost for many families. This paper reviews available data on expenditure and affordability, and presents new analysis of household expenditure data to understand how much Australian families are spending on early childhood education and care, as a...
Report

The two Australias: the talkers versus the doers

The broader context for this research is the significant structural changes that have taken place across the Australian economy over the past 100 years. These changes are often discussed in the context of Australia industrialising away from its agrarian base, then de-industrialising in the shift...
Report

2021 Intergenerational report: Australia over the next 40 years

The 2021 Intergenerational Report projects an outlook for the economy and the Australian government’s budget over the next 40 years. It examines the long-term sustainability of current policies and how demographic, technological and other structural trends may affect the economy and the budget.
Policy report

A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages: modelled impacts on sugar consumption and government revenue

The management of the obesity crisis in Australia is a national and economic priority, and Australia’s response to it must be commensurate with the breadth of its prevalence and and major impacts it has on individuals and society. This report outlines economic modelling of the...