Economic modelling



Report

The nature-based economy: how Australia’s prosperity depends on nature

This report calculates the Australian economy’s direct dependence on nature and the variation in direct dependency for every major industry sector. It also calls for government to create strong environment laws that protect nature and establishing an independent regulator to enforce them.
Report

Australia’s debt disaster: estimating interest repayments on federal government debt by 2030

The research in this report explores three scenarios which model the impact that rising cash rates will have on government bond yields and interest repayments on debt being rolled over, as well as new debt being added to Australia's balance sheet.
Working paper

Paying back Australia's COVID-19 debt

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a sudden and steep increase in Australia’s public debt, as in most other countries. This paper investigates and assesses ways in which Australia can bring its debt down to fiscally sustainable levels through the tax and transfer system.
Report

Antimicrobial resistance: designing a comprehensive macroeconomic modeling strategy

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a dominant and growing global health threat. This study summarises the existing literature on the identified factors driving AMR and reviews the factors that have been considered in existing macroeconomic studies. The paper also includes the major policy implications arising from...
Working paper

COVID-19 private pension withdrawals and unemployment tenures

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a range of previously untested major policy responses from governments, including allowing people to make early withdrawals from their superannuation accounts. This paper evaluates the impacts on people's retirement savings.
Report

Prices and profits after the pandemic

This analysis shows that the profits of the largest non-financial companies were up 34 per cent at the end of 2021, compared to pre-pandemic levels – rising significantly faster than inflation and wage growth. This report argues that some firms could have considerable market power...
Briefing paper

Wage price spiral or price wage spiral?

While significant concerns have been raised about the inflationary impacts of a five percent increase in the minimum wage, in reality, the authors of this paper argue that the direct inflationary impact of a five percent increase in all wages is only 1.27 percent, and...
Policy report

Research note: modelling of the 2022 Coalition and Labor child care policies

This paper provides results of modelling of the distributional impacts of Labor's proposed child care policy and the Coalition's recently legislated child care policy. Both policies are compared to the previous child care subsidy policy.
Policy report

Understanding structural effects of COVID-19 on the global economy: first steps

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses are likely to alter the global economy in a way that affects its ability to adjust to future shocks and changes. This paper develops a point of reference for thinking about developments which could be deemed long-term.
Report

The economic and employment consequences of net zero emissions by 2050 in Australia

This study builds on previous IPA research by analysing the potential economic and employment impact of a ban on all new coal, gas and oil projects – which at a minimum would be required for Australia to meet its net zero emissions by 2050 commitment.
Report

Pre-election economic and fiscal outlook 2022

Consistent with the Charter, the 2022 PEFO provides updated fiscal and economic estimates and projections, based on the best professional judgment of the Treasury and the Department of Finance, reflecting all known information at the time of the issue of the election writs.
Report

The economic benefits of high-quality universal early child education

This report reviews several economic aspects of Australia’s failure to both allocate sufficient economic resources to early child education and care services, and to ensure that those resources are used to provide the best-quality services possible.
Working paper

Fiscal policy in the COVID-19 era

This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling three scenarios using a macro-econometric model.
Report

Not so universal: how to reduce out-of-pocket healthcare payments

Hundreds of thousands of the sickest and poorest Australians are missing out on healthcare because of gaps in Medicare coverage and high fees charged by medical specialists. This report proposes some reforms that could save Australians about $1 billion in out-of-pocket payments each year.
Report

World development report 2022: finance for an equitable recovery

This report focuses on the interrelated economic risks that households, businesses, financial institutions and governments worldwide are facing as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis. The report offers new insights from research on the interconnectedness of balance sheets and the potential spillover effects across sectors.
Discussion paper

Who's buying? The impact of global decarbonisation on Australia’s regions

This report from the Centre For Policy Development’s sustainable economy initiative models the impact of global decarbonisation commitments on employment and output at a Local Government Area (LGA) level in Australia.
Report

Examining the social and economic costs of alcohol use in Australia: 2017/18

This report is the first national update in a decade of the costs of alcohol use. Using up-to-date methods of calculating costs and including a number of previously uncounted conditions and costs, it is substantially higher than the 2010 estimate of $14.4 billion.
Report

Inquiry into population, migration and agglomeration

This report investigates agglomeration economies and their ability to alter the economic productivity of cities, together with an examination of the key drivers of population growth and mobility in Australia.
Working paper

The lifetime fiscal impact of the Australian permanent migration program

The Fiscal Impact of New Australians model (FIONA) has been developed by the Treasury to estimate the fiscal impact of permanent migrants over their remaining lifetimes in Australia. This paper presents the methodological approach used in FIONA, along with the main modelling results.
Report

Australia's long-term emissions reduction plan

This strategy document outlines the Australian government's plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.