Economic modelling

Report

Supporting Australia’s housing system: modelling pandemic policy responses

This research considers the economic literature relating to pandemics, and models a range of related economic outcomes on employment and unemployment by sector, and on the housing outcomes of home owners, private renters, and small investor landlords in Australia from late 2020 and through 2021.
Report

Coronavirus and international students

This report explores the current decline in international students in Australia following COVID-19 restrictions, and models potential further falls that could occur if Australia's borders remain closed.
Briefing paper

A comparison of the economic impacts of income tax cuts and childcare spending

This paper outlines a comparison of the impact on employment of child care expenditure and income tax cuts of an equivalent net cost to the budget. The paper argues that the clear superiority of childcare expenditure in stimulating economic activity reflects the concentration of the...
Report

Does poverty in childhood beget poverty in adulthood in Australia?

This report provides new empirical evidence that the length of time children live in households experiencing income-based disadvantage is a predictor of other forms of disadvantage experienced by early adulthood.
Policy report

How does the budget affect us? Independent modelling of Federal Budget 2020-21

NATSEM undertakes independent and impartial research that contributes to policy design and analysis. Their work includes models that show how policy scenarios shape tax and welfare payments. This report is based on the STINMOD+ tax and transfer microsimulation model, which is used to estimate the...
Report

Measuring the economic impact of early bushfire detection

The fires that occurred over the 2019/20 Australian summer were unprecedented in scale and had a devastating impact on large parts of the country. This paper estimates the economic costs of bushfires between 2020 and 2049, and the potential reduction in these costs from investments...
Working paper

Uncertainty and monetary policy during extreme events

How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the COVID-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? This paper outlines economic modelling for policymakers.
Report

JobSeeker payment: understanding economic and policy trends influencing Commonwealth expenditure

This report examines historical trends in JobSeeker payment expenditure and recipient demographics, the drivers of these trends, and the implications for Commonwealth Government expenditure on the JobSeeker payment over the medium term.
Report

Estimating the economic impacts of lowering current levels of income support payments

This analysis, by Deloitte Access Economics, suggests that the federal government's planned cuts to the coronavirus supplement for people on JobSeeker, Youth Allowance and parenting payments could see the economy lose $31.3 billion and 145,000 full-time jobs over the next two years.
Report

Retirement income review modelling - fiscal results

Industry Super Australia (ISA), in the context of the federal government’s Retirement Income Review, commissioned this research from Rice Warner to assess the impacts of various policy options utilising their comprehensive econometric model of the Australian superannuation system.