Economic modelling


Australia's long-term emissions reduction plan: modelling and analysis

This report summarises the methods, assumptions and results from the economic modelling conducted to inform the development of the Australian government’s long-term emissions reduction plan and associated 'net zero emissions by 2050' target.

False economy: the economic benefits of the NDIS and the consequences of government cost-cutting

The National Disability Insurance Agency's (NDIA's) annual financial sustainability report of December 2020 (AFSRDec20) made waves in the disability support community when it was released earlier this year. This report discusses some of the issues surrounding the new NDIA modelling, in addition to assessing the...
Discussion paper

All pain, no gain: the full cost of the National Party’s climate stance

This report explains the size and cause of the significant economic benefits associated with increasing the ambition of Australia’s 2030 target that are calculated by Deloitte Access Economics modelling, and relied upon by the Business Council of Australia.

Markets are moving: the economic costs of Australia's climate inaction

This report looks at the economic impact that carbon border tariffs could have on Australia’s economy if appropriate measures are not taken to act on climate change now, in line with other key trading allies.

E3 Opportunity assessment: developing the future energy workforce - final report 2021

This opportunity assessment describes a pathway to understanding the present and future energy workforce in Australia. Developing the workforce is crucial to enabling the clean energy transition and realising the RACE for 2030 vision of a customer-centred clean energy system.
Working paper

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia: modelling approach

The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia (EMMA) is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy and scenario analysis at the Treasury. It has been developed, tested and used since 2018. The focus of this paper is to outline the model’s structure and describe...

Doherty modelling – assumptions of TTIQ and their impact on Phase 2 modelling

This report argues that the effectiveness of test, trace, isolate, quarantine (TTIQ) is likely to be dependent upon case numbers, but current modelling does not take this into account. As cases rise to unplanned levels, current TTIQ assumptions undermine Doherty modelling of Phase 2.

Doherty modelling report for National Cabinet 30 July 2021

This report outlines different models of COVID-19 infection and vaccination used to define a target level of vaccine coverage for transition to Phase B of the National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response.

National plan to transition to Australia’s national COVID-19 response: economic impact analysis

In this paper, Treasury estimates the direct economic costs of the COVID‑19 management strategies modelled by the Doherty Institute through analysis of the direct impacts of activity restrictions and lockdowns used to manage the virus and contain outbreaks.
Discussion paper

Generation stressed: house prices and the cost of living in the 21st Century

This discussion paper explores how the affordability of home ownership has changed between generations over the last half century. It shows that the common framing of mortgage affordability places far too much emphasis on short-term interest rates, and far too little on inflation and wage...