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Wages growth

ALTERNATIVE LABELS
Wage freeze
Wage stagnation
NARROWER TERMS


Briefing paper

Wage price spiral or price wage spiral?

While significant concerns have been raised about the inflationary impacts of a five percent increase in the minimum wage, in reality, the authors of this paper argue that the direct inflationary impact of a five percent increase in all wages is only 1.27 percent, and...
Report

The wages crisis: revisited

A comprehensive review of Australian wage trends indicates that wage growth is likely to remain stuck at historically weak levels - despite the dramatic disruptions experienced by the Australian labour market through the COVID-19 pandemic. This report finds that targeted policies to deliberately lift wages...
Briefing paper

Economic records don’t match the election rhetoric: data brief

Economic management is a feature of all election campaigns, but key claims made to date do not stack up. This paper explores claims about wages growth and tax by the Morrison Government, finding inconsistencies between its arguments and its record.
Policy report

Stuck in neutral: the policy architecture driving slow wage growth in Australia

This report begins by describing trends in wage growth in Australia over the last 14 years. It then identifies the policy positions of the federal government since assuming office in 2013 that have contributed to slow wage growth.
Briefing paper

Budget analysis 2022-23: a budget to get to the May election – but no further

The Morrison Government has tabled its budget for the 2022-23 financial year. In this briefing paper, the Centre for Future Work's team of economists unpacks the budget, considers its effects and suggests alternatives.
Report

The return of inflation: what it means for Australia

Inflation is rising around the world, the sting in the tail of the pandemic economic stimulus packages unleashed by governments in 2020. This analysis paper examines the implications for prices and wages growth in Australia.
Working paper

Do workers share in firm success?

This document reports on the extent to which firm financial performance is passed on to workers in the form of higher wages and the degree to which this pass-through has changed over the period 2002-2018.
Fact sheet

Fact Check: Labor says wages fell 2.1 per cent over the year to June 2021, the 'fastest drop in 20 years'. Is that correct?

Wages growth in Australia has been sluggish for years, well before the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy. In a Facebook post, Federal Labor claimed that "under Scott Morrison real wages have fallen 2.1 per cent in 12 months, the fastest drop in wages in 20...
Discussion paper

Living on borrowed time

This discussion paper has been prepared to trigger widespread consultations with the broader community about Australia's economic future.
Fact sheet

Fact Check: Anthony Albanese says Australia's real wages have 'flatlined' for eight years. Is he correct?

After being overly optimistic with its wage forecasts for years, Federal Treasury is now, according to Labor, predicting that real wages will fall. RMIT ABC Fact Check investigates. The verdict: Mr Albanese is close to the mark.
Report

Stuck in neutral: the policy architecture driving slow wages growth in Australia

Australian workers are enduring a sustained period of low wage growth, in both the private and public sectors, in all Australian jurisdictions. This report examines seven policy preferences of the federal government, and their effects on wage growth.
Report

Just reward: the case for a wage rise after COVID-19

The Fair Work Commission’s 2021 Annual Wage Review is occurring in the context of the most uncertain economic outlook Australia has experienced in decades. This report outlines the case for a significant increase in the minimum wage, which will flow through to higher take-home pay...
Briefing paper

Budget analysis 2021-22: heroic assumptions and half measures

This briefing paper reviews the main features of the Australian federal budget 2021/22 from the perspective of workers and labour markets. In particular, it considers in detail a major flaw in the overall macroeconomic logic underpinning the budget.
Report

Report of Valuing the Teaching Profession - an independent inquiry

In early 2020, the NSW Teachers Federation resolved to commission an independent inquiry into the state of the teaching profession in the public schools of NSW and the significant changes that have affected the profession since 2004. This report outlines the inquiry's findings.
Briefing paper

How non-union agreements suppress wage growth – and why the Omnibus Bill will lead to more of them

This report illustrates how the Morrison Government's omnibus industrial relations bill will lead to a significant increase in employer-designed enterprise agreements (EA) that reduce workers' pay and conditions, rather than improve them—signalling a return to the WorkChoices pattern of EA-making and putting further downward pressure...
Working paper

Wage growth distribution and changes over time: 2001-2018

The results in this research suggest that wage growth inequality between employees is relatively independent of where the economy is in the business cycle, and that the differences between employees are more substantial than the year-to-year variation.
Briefing paper

The long-term consequences of wage freezes for real wages, lifetime earnings, and superannuation

A wage freeze is often described as a "temporary sacrifice," that supposedly ends once normal annual wage increments are restored. However, this paper confirms that the legacy of even a temporary pay freeze is a permanent reduction in lifetime incomes and superannuation, which can easily...
Report

Tolerate unemployment, but blame the unemployed

For the last generation, macroeconomic policy in Australia has been based on the assumption that unemployment must be maintained at a certain minimum level in order to restrain wages and prevent an outbreak of accelerating inflation. Now, after six years of record-low wage growth, this...
Briefing paper

Collective bargaining “reform”: What does business want? And what would actually fix the system?

This paper compiles the various proposals advanced by employers, and shows that together, they would constitute a thorough reorientation of Australia's collective bargaining system.
Working paper

Do payroll tax cuts for Australian firms affect their use of capital and labor?

This paper studies the effects of increases in payroll tax thresholds on wages, employment and capital expenditure in Australia. The estimates within provide no evidence in favor of the hypothesis that a lower payroll tax burden increases wages, employment or capital expenditure.