Scenario planning



Strengthening Australia’s pandemic preparedness

This report highlights six science and technology areas critical to minimising the impact of pandemics in Australia. It also makes 20 recommendations that could reduce impacts while improving economic, social and health outcomes.

The coming deluge: scenario analysis for underwriting in a changing climate

This paper considers the options, implications and communication of scenario analysis for underwriting non-life insurance. It raises awareness of different natural catastrophe modelling approaches and highlights the valuable insights that can be generated across the insurance business
Journal article

Scenario planning for times of great uncertainty

COVID-19 has had a massive impact on the social sector, not least in making planning for future demand extremely challenging. Using scenarios proved a valuable way to understand potential impacts on demand in the Victorian child and family services sector, given the many uncertainties.

Australia’s new regional context: Pacific Island futures and air power possibilities

This paper argues that emerging aerospace technologies, human security constructs and different organisational concepts could combine to enhance Australia’s Pacific Step Up strategy in the future.
Conference paper

The power of integrated spatial modelling: RailSmart Planning Wanneroo

This paper discusses a major Smart Cities project, the output of which is an interactive digital platform which tests optimal public transport patronage and employment creation potential of various railway station development options.
Conference paper

From design vision to economic feasibility: using a data-driven approach

Trends suggest that 60% of all new dwellings will be built in established Sydney's middle suburbs characterised by houses reaching the end of their lifecycle. This paper presents and evaluates a case study illustrating the tension between design envisioning and its economic feasibility in market-driven...
Discussion paper

The third degree: evidence and implications for Australia of existential climate-related security risk

This discussion paper provides provides detailed supporting evidence for the brief 3°C scenario. Some contentious aspects are explored, including the possibility that perhaps a billion people could be displaced by 3°C of warming, and that some regions may become too hot for human habitation for...
Policy report

Existential climate-related security risk: a scenario approach

This policy paper looks at the existential climate-related security risk through a scenario set thirty years into the future.

Regulatory boundaries and climate adapted futures in the Australian Capital Territory

Regional scale collaboration on climate change adaptation is an important consideration for governments. This report is based on a project that explored the relationship between legal and policy frameworks and cross-border collaboration on climate change adaptation in the Australian Capital Region (ACR).

Melbourne 4.0

This strategy uses scenario planning and finds that the two most critical uncertainties and change drivers’ for the city of Melbourne’s economy out to 2030 are the impact of the shifting geopolitical landscape and the rate of global technological disruption. and innovative advancements.

Scenarios for climate adaptation: guidebook for practitioners

The guidebook has been designed to be useful to people working in a wide variety of organisational settings including: state and local government; regional planning bodies or agencies; nongovernment organisations; businesses and industry bodies, community sector organisations and community groups.
Briefing paper

Building common understanding of scenario based strategies to inform climate change adaptation

Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation aims to strengthen knowledge about the use of scenarios and scenario planning as tools for climate change adaptation decisionmaking, drawing on the recent experience of Victorian climate adaptation policy-makers and practitioners.

Scenarios for climate adaptation: final report

The aim of this report is to strengthen knowledge about the use of scenarios and scenario planning as tools for climate change adaptation decision making, drawing on the recent experience of Victorian climate adaptation policy makers and practitioners. Production of the report has been funded...