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IT IS INCREASINGLY difficult to name the next Liberal prime minister. Malcolm Turnbull’s prospects are receding and history, let alone the polls, is against his winning the next election. No new government coming to office after an election has been denied a second term since the Scullin Labor government was wiped out by the Great Depression at the December 1931 election. Some prime ministers have gone close to losing their second election – Menzies in 1951, Whitlam in 1974 and Howard in 1998 – but Rudd looks a near certain winner of the next election, which could be as early as March next year.
In the sixty-four years since the second world war, oppositions have formed new governments at only six elections. Governments have remained in office on average for ten years and eight months. From 1949 the Coalition, from Menzies to McMahon, held government for twenty-three years and won nine elections; Whitlam lasted three years, winning two elections; Fraser ruled for six years and three months and won three elections; Hawke–Keating held power for thirteen years and won five elections; and Howard lasted ten years and eight months and won four. Rudd will celebrate two years of office in November...
