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WHEN visiting journalists first encountered the bewildering complexities of Northern Ireland’s politics at the height of the “troubles,” a kindly piece of advice was on hand from local informants: “If you’re not confused here, you don’t really know what’s going on.” The same pithy wisdom offers a useful working guide to anyone seeking to make sense of the 2010 general election in Britain. For this month-long campaign has been an exercise in glorious confusion that, even in its final days before voters go to the polls this Thursday, resists any certainty about the outcome.
It was not supposed to be like this. For more than two years before the election was called, the Conservative opposition led by David Cameron had enjoyed a lead in the opinion polls more than sufficient under Britain’s first-past-the-post system to give it a clear working majority in parliament. The Labour government of prime minister Gordon Brown was looking enfeebled and indecisive even before the financial tsunami of 2008–09 hit, and its creditable performance in response to the crisis had done only a little to redress the image. The perennial third party in the country’s decades-old duopoly, the Liberal Democrats – led since December 2007 by Nick Clegg – was once again finding it hard to secure a firm political beachhead in face of media neglect and...
