Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis

Working paper

Can this time be different? Policy options in times of rising debt

Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood...
Working paper

Oil curse, economic growth and trade openness

An important economic paradox that frequently arises in the economic literature is that countries with abundant natural resources are poor in terms of real gross domestic product per capita. This paradox, known as the ‘resource curse’, is contrary to the conventional intuition that natural resources...
Working paper

New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets

China has recently overtaken the U.S to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, this paper formally compares contributions of demand shocks from China, the U.S and the rest of the world. It finds that China's influence on the...
Working paper

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts

We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts.
Report

A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models

Yield curve models within the popular Nelson and Siegel (hereafter NS) class are shown to arise from a formal low-order Taylor approximation to the generic Gaussian affine term structure model. That theoretical foundation provides an assurance that NS models correspond to a well-accepted framework for...