Geoffrey Loudon

Working paper

An early warning tool for measuring the build up of systemic risks in banks and financial systems

This paper develops, analyses and implements an early warning tool for systemic risk in banks and financial entities. The tool is based on a refined approach to stress testing. Calculations performed on Australian bank data are shown to predict past distres. Risk is measured as...
Working paper

Real estate cycles and bank systemic risks

We present an empirical model of systemic banking crises from an Australian perspective. Having no history of domestic banking crises in recent history, our quantitative model is estimated using an international panel data set spanning 18 countries and 30 years of observations. We evaluate in...
Working paper

Monitoring risk in the financial system using time series methods

SRISK methodology recently proposed in the literature is refined and extended. The refinement is to define systemic risk using a formalised stress testing framework including a stress function. Baseline risk and the stress risk are in terms of the ordinary and stressed expectation. Stressed expectation...