We propose a new top-down approach to measure systemic risk in the financial system. Our framework uses a combination of macroeconomic, financial and rating factors in representative regions of the world. We formulate a mixed-frequency state-space model to estimate macroeconomic factors. To derive financial risk factors, we use Moody’s/KMV expected default frequencies after accounting for...

We estimate an unobservable domestic business conditions index for Australia using a variety of observable macroeconomic and nancial variables, relating it to an unobservable external index involving external variables relevant to Australia. Our small open economy, dynamic factor model uses stock and ow variables arriving at mixed frequencies. We nd important links between the domestic...