Should we expect the current pattern of older voter support for the Coalition to continue undisturbed or might we see a movement away from the Coalition as the bulge of ‘baby boomers’ move into the ranks of older Australians and moderate this conservatism?

This paper is a brief attempt to answer this question by drawing on a well-known data source, Newspoll. While it is always difficult to be definitive with these kinds of questions, the attempt is certainly worthwhile. The results below suggest that demography will not be on the side of the Coalition in coming years. As the ‘baby boomers’ age, the voting patterns of older Australians appear to be changing, and changing in a direction which is adverse to the Liberal/National Party vote.