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While the violence of the attempted coup in East Timor is shocking, it should not be a surprise. East Timor has been moving into multi-dimensional crisis for several years, resulting from three factors: rule by the gun; increasing and apparently intractable impoverishment and corruption; and deeply eroded legitimacy of all the major political players. Tanter concludes: “Australia faces a profound dilemma of avoiding on the one hand a turn to de facto colonial take-over and the other hand either useless hand-wringing or a delusional hope that with enough troops and money East Timor will right itself. East Timor, more than any other post-Cold War UN-led peace-building operation was the model of global stewardship. Unless the triple crises of East Timor are effectively addressed in short order the effects will be felt far wider.”
