'But this time, everything turns out differently': what the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings mean for the Middle East

The Middle East uprisings reflect long-terms trends and crises common to most countries of the region and their impact will be felt for many years to come.

In a new Lowy Institute Perspective, West Asia Program Director Anthony Bubalo examines the consequences for the Middle East of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

This paper argues that we need to be cautious about extrapolating what the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings will mean for other countries in the Middle East. It is not just that countries and situations are different. It is also because the success or failure of popular uprisings hinges on a complex interplay of decisions, actions, resilience, weakness, mistakes and panic by actors on both sides of the political drama.