Justice or stability? Hizbullah, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and consequences for the region

This paper explores what the outcomes of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri) will mean for both key domestic actors in Lebanese politics such as Hizbullah, and regional players like Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Popular uprisings have swept across the Arab world promising a new era of open and accountable government. But in Lebanon, nearly six years after popular demonstrations in Beirut led to the so-called ‘Cedar Revolution’, the country's newly found independence from Syria appears to be slipping inexorably away. Ironically, the catalyst for this has been the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).

The STL owed its existence to the action that prompted Lebanon's Cedar Revolution in the first place — the assassination of former Premier Rafiq Hariri — but its explosive conclusions are now being used by Hizbullah to beat its sectarian rivals into political submission. Hizbullah's ability to bring down the government of Sa'ad Hariri over the issue of continued support for the STL reflects not only the increasing political power of the Shi'a party — it also reflects the return of Syrian influence over Lebanon and a tactical political victory for Damascus over Riyadh and Washington.