This paper analyses the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2013 in New South Wales (NSW).
Method: Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2013, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research’s recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall’s trend test was run on the 24 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories.
Results: Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 20 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2013 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: motor vehicle theft (77% lower), robbery with a firearm (73% lower), break and enter non-dwelling (68% lower), break and enter dwelling (52% lower), murder (43% lower), robbery without a weapon (35% lower), and robbery with a weapon not a firearm (29% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2013 than in 1990: sexual assault (125% higher), other sexual offences (95% higher) and assault (74% higher).
Conclusion: In the period since 1990, assault and sexual assault rates recorded significant long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2013 recorded sexual assault rate was marginally below the highest in that series (occurring in 2012) and the rate since 2000 has recorded a significant uptrend. Apart from sexual assault and ‘other’ sexual offences, the remaining eight offence types recorded significant downtrends in recorded rates since 2000. The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of more than 60 percent since 2000.