Australia is critically exposed to geopolitical risk due to an overwhelming dependence on imported liquid fuels. Current policy positions have failed to confront the seriousness of this exposure, and have left us without a sufficient response. This paper proposes that domestic production is the only viable strategy that delivers genuine security.

Green hydrogen is often heralded in Australia’s net zero ambitions, but this paper posits that it is not viable today and won’t be in the foreseeable future. The paper examines why green hydrogen will likely remain prohibitively expensive, why projects are stalling and how the recently announced Orica subsidy exposes Australia’s strategy as untenable.

The electricity system in Australia is adjusting to an increase in the overall amount of risk brought about by the increasing pace of the energy transition. This paper finds this will inevitably result in higher prices for everyday Australians. The mechanism through which this risk becomes cost is electricity retailing.