The Coalition argues it is the party best equipped to manage the budget, with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull claiming the Government has the lowest rate of spending growth of any government over the last five decades. Mr Turnbull is close to the mark. Annual spending growth is indeed running at its lowest average rate since at least the early 1970s. However, the
verdict is subject to three qualifications. First, in calculating average spending, Mr Turnbull has included the budget's projections to 2021-22. There is a big difference between predicted and actual spending. Past history demonstrates that budget predictions for spending cannot be used as a reliable estimate for actual spending. Second, in calculating its average annual spending growth (1.9 per cent), the Government has shared responsibility 50:50 with the former Labor government for a spending surge in 2013-14 (the financial year when it came to power). Experts have questioned this methodology, particularly as the Coalition was in power for approximately three-quarters of the 2013-14 financial year, during which it made some significant spending decisions, including providing the Reserve Bank with $8.8 billion. Finally, low spending should not be regarded as a political virtue in its own right, or a benchmark of political success. Rather, spending levels should reflect the economic circumstances of the time. An alternative method for calculating the average, based on advice from experts, found the growth in real annual spending is running somewhat faster under the current Coalition Government than the level identified by Mr Turnbull. Nevertheless, under this alternative calculation, spending remains at its lowest average level for about 50 years. Verdict: Close to the mark