This is an initial discussion paper issued by the Inquiry Panel formed by the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) in collaboration with the Statistical Society of Australia (SSA), to review the performance of the opinion polls at the 2019 Australian federal election.
The paper follows AMSRO’s decision, along with the Statistical Society of Australia, to conduct a review of election polling in Australia to determine why all the published polls incorrectly called the outcome at last May’s Federal election and how methods can be improved in the future.
The discussion paper examines:
- The existing codes of conduct/guidelines that apply to election and other political polling in Australia;
- International guidelines for election and other political polling, as well as examples of disclosure standards in the USA, UK, Canada and New Zealand;
- Implications for the development of more comprehensive standards for election and other political polling in Australia, and;
- Initial recommendations and issues for consideration by AMSRO.
The discussion paper has been released for consultation with interested parties and the public, and submissions close on 12 June 2020.