Pacific Islanders have found their region, previously undervalued by larger powers, now a focal point for strategic competition.

Geopolitical competition in the Pacific Islands region is intensifying. From deals on policing in Solomon Islands to building parliamentary complexes in Vanuatu, China’s outreach and activities in the region appear indefatigable. In the words of Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Canberra and its partners are locked in a “state of permanent contest” with Beijing over influence in the region. Hardly a week goes by without a new initiative by Australia and others — involving more aid, more loans, or more defence cooperation — to counterbalance China’s deepening reach into key sectors such as policing and telecommunications.

Faced with this new “great game”, Pacific Island countries have become diplomatic price-setters and are leveraging increased competition to maximise development benefits. But unbridled strategic rivalry also presents challenges to good governance and transparency in the region, with opportunities for local political actors to advance narrow political interests over national interests.

At the same time, the region is grappling with a human-made calamity like no other in the form of climate change and rising sea levels, a lost decade of development following the Covid pandemic, and the persistent challenges associated with geographic remoteness and dispersal.

Key findings

• The Pacific’s geopolitical landscape is increasingly competitive and dynamic.
• The Pacific is poised for more geopolitical shocks that could disrupt its political, economic, and security landscapes, and strain regional cohesion. 
• Pacific Island countries are asserting their needs more boldly in international engagements, asking for better deals on trade, labour mobility, digital connectivity and climate resilience.