Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of long-term disability in working-age populations. Return to work is a key marker of recovery, yet most studies assess it as binary at fixed time points. We aimed to estimate transition probabilities to and from work disability during the years after TBI and how injury severity and pre-injury sociodemographic and medical factors influence these probabilities.

Findings indicate TBI was associated with persistently elevated transition probabilities to work disability across all severity groups, influenced by sociodemographic and medical factors. However, the lack of standardised severity grading limits comparison with other studies. Still, these results suggest TBI increases long-term risk of work disability, supporting sustained individualised rehabilitation.