Argues that Papua New Guinea’s next generation of leaders should take a new approach in seeking to turn around negative trends in law and order, education, and health.

Executive summary
After 40 years of independence there are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about PNG’s future. A growing middle class has produced a number of talented emerging leaders who are committed to changing the weak development trajectory of their country. They will come into leadership positions in government, in the private sector, and in civil society armed with ambitious strategic plans created by the Somare and O’Neill governments and lessons learned from the experience of their elders. They face a highly complex set of challenges, influenced by seven key trends: weak governance; poor law and order; a failing health system; a mediocre national education system; continuing reliance on the extractives industry; the unrealised potential of subsistence agriculture; and a growing population.

A new generation of leaders must build the quality and effectiveness of national institutions. At the same time they will need to demonstrate tangible improvements to the delivery of health and education services and to law and justice. Turning negative trends into positive ones will require some fundamental changes in approach by the next generation of PNG’s leaders. Seeking to solve all of the nation’s problems simultaneously with insufficient resources is unlikely to deliver the kind of progress Papua New Guineans expect. Emerging leaders should concentrate on a few areas where bold and innovative policy interventions could make a transformational difference. Australia, which has enduring interests in PNG’s success, should be creative in supporting the next generation of leaders, through government, private sector, and civil society links, to help them make a real difference.

In 2015 Papua New Guinea celebrated 40 years of independence. The anniversary stimulated a great deal of public reflection on the nation’s progress to date and its future. For Papua New Guineans, there are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the next 40 years.

Papua New Guinea’s population of 7.5 million is young and growing. The country has experienced more than a decade of sustained economic growth. Its population is now better connected through an extensive mobile telecommunications network. A vast social safety net created by cultural obligations within communities ensures that everyone has food and housing. A growing middle class has produced a number of talented emerging leaders who will be a force for change in the country.

But equally, Papua New Guinea faces some serious challenges. In the last 40 years, progress in raising the living standards of the majority of the population has been extremely slow and arguably is faltering. Current trends — in the economy, law and order, health, and education — do not augur well for either the immediate or medium-term future.

Successive leaders of Papua New Guinea have pinned their hopes for realising the development ambitions of the nation on the next significant resources investment. However, as evidenced by the slow progress made in delivering the benefits of the most recent resources boom, relying on revenue from the extractives industry alone is insufficient to make life better for future generations of Papua New Guineans.

All of this matters greatly to Australia. Australia was once the colonial power and remains the country’s dominant security, trade, investment, and aid partner. Sean Dorney argues in his recent Lowy Institute Paper, The Embarrassed Colonialist, that Papua New Guinea is worth having as a good, solid, friendly neighbour. Australia’s 2016 Defence White Paper notes that “the security, stability and cohesion of Papua New Guinea contributes to a secure, resilient Australia with secure northern approaches”. Papua New Guinea is Australia’s 18th largest trading partner while Australia is by far PNG’s most significant trading partner. Australian investment in Papua New Guinea is estimated at over $18 billion. But most significantly, Papua New Guinea is and will likely remain the single largest destination for Australian aid. The aid program in 2015/16 is valued at $554.5 million and accounts for three-quarters of all aid to Papua New Guinea.

The aim of this Analysis is to identify the key trends that will shape the future of PNG’s development, specifically: weak governance; poor law and order; a failing health system; a mediocre national education system; continuing reliance on the extractives industry; the unrealised potential of subsistence agriculture; and a growing population. The goal here, however, is not to highlight the shortcomings of the current or previous PNG governments, but to identify those issues that need to be tackled in coming years if PNG’s future is to look different from its past. As this Analysis will argue, remaking PNG’s future will require some fundamental changes in approach by the next generation of PNG leaders. This Analysis will also discuss the role that Australia should play, given that it too has a vital stake in PNG’s future.